Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. While there is optimism in data center growth and strategic partnerships like with NVIDIA, concerns over industry declines in Europe and China, conservative guidance, and lack of clear responses to certain risks create uncertainty. The positive aspects balance out the negatives, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
Key Financial Performance
Total company organic sales Down about 1% year-over-year. This was due to a decline in short-cycle residential and light commercial markets, which softened more than expected in the second half of the year. However, growth in long-cycle and aftermarket businesses helped mitigate the decline.
Commercial HVAC Achieved double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive year. This was driven by market share gains, increased margins, and strong demand for products.
Aftermarket sales Up double digits for the fifth consecutive year. Growth was driven by increased service agreements and modifications/upgrades, with sales in modifications and upgrades up 20%.
CSA Residential Down nearly 10% year-over-year. This was attributed to a cyclical downturn and destocking in the market.
Light Commercial Down about 20% year-over-year. This was due to market softness and destocking.
Data center business Grew to around $1 billion in 2025. Fourth-quarter CSA data center orders were up more than 4x year-over-year, driven by investments in portfolio expansion and increased market share in water-cooled chillers.
Free cash flow (Q4) Approximately $900 million, reflecting a large reduction in inventories and accounts receivable.
Full-year free cash flow Approximately $2.1 billion, in line with expectations.
CSA segment (Q4) Organic sales down 17% year-over-year. Residential sales were down close to 40%, light commercial sales declined 20%, and commercial sales were up 12%. Segment operating margin was just under 9%, a decline of about 10 points year-over-year.
CSE segment (Q4) Organic sales down 2% year-over-year. Commercial sales were up mid-single digits, while residential and light commercial sales declined mid-single digits. Operating profit and margin were up year-over-year due to cost actions.
Climate Solutions Asia Pacific (Q4) Organic sales down 9% year-over-year. Strength in India and Australia was offset by weakness in China, where residential and light commercial sales were down about 30%. Segment operating margin was up 100 basis points year-over-year.
Transportation segment (Q4) Organic sales up 10% year-over-year, driven by exceptional growth in container sales. Segment operating margins expanded by 30 basis points year-over-year.
Total company orders (Q4) Up 16% year-over-year, driven by over 45% growth in commercial HVAC orders globally and 80% growth in CSA commercial orders.
Adjusted operating profit (Q4) $455 million, down 33% year-over-year. The decline was due to lower organic sales, unfavorable business mix, and lower manufacturing output, partially offset by strong productivity.
Adjusted EPS (Q4) $0.34, down year-over-year due to lower adjusted operating profit, a lower share count, and higher interest expense and tax rate.
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Operating Highlights
Data Center Business: Grew to around $1 billion in 2025, with CSA data center orders up 4x in Q4. Expanded portfolio addresses all major data center chiller applications. Introduced maglev bearing air-cooled chillers and first CDU for liquid cooling in 2025.
HEMS Offering: Gained attention from hyperscalers and utilities. Demonstrated battery-powered heat pump operation during peak hours. Market launch planned for 2026.
Commercial HVAC: Achieved fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth, gaining market share and increasing margins. Data centers expected to grow 50% in 2026.
Aftermarket Business: Achieved double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive year. Connected chillers increased from 17,000 to over 70,000 in three years. Modifications and upgrades sales grew 20% in 2025.
Cost Actions: Executed cost actions in 2025, expected to deliver over $100 million in savings in 2026. Reduced channel inventory and overhead.
Productivity and Pricing: Offset tariffs with cost and pricing actions, drove material productivity, and took decisive overhead cost actions.
Capital Allocation: Focused on high-return investments, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and returning cash to shareholders. Distributed $3.7 billion through buybacks and dividends in 2025.
Electrification and Heat Pumps: Transition from boilers to heat pumps underway, with double-digit growth in heat pumps. Strategic initiatives position Carrier for strong earnings growth as demand stabilizes.
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Risk or Challenges
Short-cycle residential and light commercial markets: Softened more than expected in the second half of 2025, with CSA residential down nearly 10% and light commercial down about 20%, impacting overall company organic sales.
CSA Resi and Light Commercial businesses: Faced much lower volumes, leading to a 9% decline in organic growth and significant under-absorption in manufacturing facilities, with residential sales down close to 40%.
Residential heating market in Europe: Continues to be challenging, particularly in Germany, with a cyclical downturn and transition to electrification and heat pumps.
China market: Ongoing weakness in residential and light commercial sectors, with sales down about 20% and intentional distributor inventory reductions.
Short-cycle businesses: Expected continued softness in 2026, especially in CSA residential and light commercial, offsetting growth in other areas.
Business mix and manufacturing output: Unfavorable mix and much lower manufacturing output negatively impacted adjusted operating profit.
Macroeconomic conditions: Assumptions for 2026 include no change to mortgage rates, consumer confidence, or home sales, which could result in industry units down 10% to 15%.
Container business: Expected declines in 2026 after a record year in 2025, impacting Transportation segment.
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Guidance & Outlook
Cost Savings: The cost actions executed in 2025 are expected to deliver over $100 million of savings in 2026.
Data Center Business: Double-digit revenue growth is expected in 2026, with data centers projected to grow by about 50%.
Aftermarket Growth: Double-digit aftermarket growth is anticipated for the sixth consecutive year in 2026.
HEMS Offering: A market launch of the integrated heat pump battery solution is planned for later in 2026, with significant growth expected in Europe through the doubling of qualified Profi installers.
Short-Cycle Businesses: Continued softness is expected in higher-margin short-cycle businesses, especially CSA residential and light commercial, with total industry units projected to decline by 10% to 15% in 2026.
CSA Residential: Sales are expected to decline by high single digits in 2026, with the absence of destocking in the second half and low single-digit price realization providing some offset.
CSE Residential: Flat sales are expected in 2026, with growth initiatives offset by lower industry volumes.
Revenue Growth: Flat to low mid-single-digit organic growth is expected in 2026, with reported sales of approximately $22 billion.
Commercial HVAC: Double-digit growth is expected globally, with the first half up low to mid-single digits and the second half up mid-teens due to data center wins and backlog delivery.
Transportation Segment: Declines in container sales are expected, offset by modest growth in global truck and trailer business and Sensitech.
Adjusted Operating Profit: Expected to be about $3.4 billion in 2026, with benefits from modest organic growth and productivity partially offset by unfavorable business mix and investments.
Adjusted EPS: Projected to be approximately $2.80 in 2026, reflecting high single-digit growth versus 2025.
Free Cash Flow: Expected to be approximately $2 billion in 2026, with a second-half weighted distribution.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Total distribution to shareholders: $3.7 billion through buybacks and dividends
Dividend program: Part of the $3.7 billion distributed to shareholders
Share buyback program: Part of the $3.7 billion distributed to shareholders
2026 share repurchase plan: Intend to repurchase about $1.5 billion in shares
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Key Q&A
Q:Can you talk about the CSA margins in Q1 and the drivers behind them?
A:CSA margins in Q1 are expected to be close to 15%. The overall company performance in Q1 is similar to Q4 2025 but with higher sales (~$5 billion) and a 1-point higher operating margin. Resi sales in Q1 in the Americas are expected to be down 20%-25%, compared to a 40% decline in Q4. The margin improvement is driven by better CSA performance ($0.05) and a lower tax rate ($0.10).
Q:What are the expected margins for other segments in Q1?
A:Transportation segment margins are expected to be similar to the prior year (~14%). Asia's margins are expected to be 10%-11%, similar to Q4 2025. Europe's margins are also expected to be similar to Q4. The Americas will face less of a headwind from resi.
Q:What is the full-year guidance for the CSA residential business?
A:The company assumes industry conditions will remain the same as last year. Industry units are expected to decline 10%-15% for the full year, with a 20%-25% decline in the first half and flat performance in the second half compared to the prior year. Sales and volume are expected to be down high single digits year-over-year, with a low single-digit benefit from pricing.
Q:What is the outlook for the CSE RLC market in 2026?
A:The industry in Europe is expected to decline mid- to high single digits. The company guided to flat performance due to mix benefits (heat pumps up double digits, boilers down low to mid-single digits) and growth initiatives. Germany remains a challenge due to heating law uncertainties, with the market declining from 715,000 to 600,000 units.
Q:How far below normal are channel inventories in CSA resi?
A:Channel inventories ended January down about 32% year-over-year, reaching 2018 levels. The company worked with channel partners to reduce field inventory to targeted levels.
Q:What is the revenue outlook for the data center business in 2026?
A:The company is guiding to $1.5 billion in revenue for 2026, with strong orders in Q4 2025 and January 2026. The company feels well-positioned, although most deliveries are expected in Q3 and Q4.
Q:What is the inventory dynamic in Q4 2025 and its impact on 2026?
A:Inventories were down 17% quarter-over-quarter but up 8% year-over-year due to maintaining U.S. resi manufacturing facilities at minimal levels. The company expects to liquidate this excess inventory through 2026.
Q:What is the company's view on the 6.5 million unit industry average for resi?
A:The company believes the 6.5 million unit industry average is conservative. They assume a replacement rate north of 20 years for 2026 and are planning based on a 2-year stack analysis. They hope for better performance but are planning conservatively.
Q:What are the assumptions for movement and channel inventory in 2026?
A:Movement is expected to track sales closely in 2026, except for a benefit in the second half due to the absence of destocking seen in the second half of 2025. Channel inventories are balanced and at 2018 levels.
Q:What is the guidance for CSAME in 2026?
A:The company is guiding to flat performance for CSAME in 2026. China is expected to be down high single digits, with RLC down 20% and CHVAC up low single digits. The rest of Asia is expected to grow high single digits, with strong performance in India, the Middle East, and Japan.
Q:What is the company's expectation for the cooling season in 2026?
A:The company expects a typical seasonal ramp in demand but off a lower base. They are operationally prepared to support increased demand if weather or other factors drive higher-than-expected demand.
Q:What are the implications of NVIDIA's comments on chiller demand for data centers?
A:The company is working closely with NVIDIA on climate-optimized reference designs. Both liquid cooling and traditional cooling will be required. The company is confident in its offerings, including QuantumLeap, and has seen recent wins in both water and air-cooled solutions.
Q:What is the company's approach to cost management and productivity?
A:The company reduced 3,000 heads in 2025 and is focusing on operational agility, AI-driven productivity, and product platforming. They aim to drive better productivity while reducing costs and are committed to learning from past challenges to improve forecasting and growth processes.
Q:What are the expectations for Americas margins in 2026?
A:Americas margins are expected to improve sequentially, reaching the mid-20s range in Q2 and Q3. This improvement is driven by reduced under-absorption headwinds and a seasonal sales increase.
Q:What is the company's view on repair versus replace in the resi market?
A:The company does not see repair over replace as a long-term trend. Replacement is more economical, and existing home sales and refrigerant changes will drive more replacements over time.
Q:What is the company's strategy for CDUs in data centers?
A:The company has introduced its own CDU products and has seen recent wins. They are working on both liquid and traditional cooling solutions and see this as a differentiator. They are in the early stages but are optimistic about future growth.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided directly addressing the potential for stockouts during the cooling season, providing only general comments about operational agility and readiness. Additionally, they did not provide specific details on how much cost would need to be added back as business improves, only stating that incremental investments are included in the guidance.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Aftermarket
CSA commercial
HVAC
President Investor
Profi installers
Slide
aftermarket system
assumption
business CSA
chiller service
consumer
cooling
cost action
cycle business
cycle market
end solution
grid
heat pump
heating
home
industry unit
news
peak hour
productivity
pump battery
sale digit
sale industry
ship
sic
softness
solution container
system offering
technician
unit industry
unit overage
MTSI Transcript
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown2-5
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. While there is optimism in data center growth and strategic partnerships like with NVIDIA, concerns over industry declines in Europe and China, conservative guidance, and lack of clear responses to certain risks create uncertainty. The positive aspects balance out the negatives, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive2-5
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance with increased revenue, operating income, and net income. The Q&A section reveals optimism in data center growth, telecom opportunities, and new product developments. Despite concerns about cash flow and some management ambiguity, the overall sentiment is positive due to raised guidance and strategic growth in key markets, supported by strong product demand and technological advancements.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive11-6
The earnings call summary highlights several positive aspects, such as expected revenue growth, capacity expansion, new product lines, and optimistic guidance for future quarters. The Q&A section further supports this with positive insights on data center growth, LEO satellite business potential, and AI market trends. While there are some uncertainties, like the lack of specific market size estimates, overall sentiment is positive. The absence of a market cap suggests a smaller company, likely resulting in a stronger stock price reaction, leading to a positive prediction.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive8-8
The earnings call summary reflects strong financial performance, optimistic guidance, and strategic market expansion efforts, particularly in defense and data centers. The Q&A reveals management's confidence in overcoming temporary margin headwinds and expanding capacity. While some revenue specifics were undisclosed, the overall sentiment remains positive due to robust growth projections and strategic initiatives.
MTSI Report
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