Should I Buy MTRX? MTRX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Matrix Service Co (MTRX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

11.060

1 Day change

-1.69%

52 Week Range

16.110

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is in a sharp breakdown (-13.63% today, additional -4.59% pre-market) with bearish momentum still expanding.
Oversold (RSI_6 ~15.8) can trigger bounces, but price has already broken below the S1 support (12.12) and is hovering near S2 (11.38), which increases “falling knife” risk.
No Intellectia edge today: AI Stock Picker and SwingMax show no active buy signal, so there’s no proprietary confirmation to step in aggressively.
Options positioning is call-skewed (bullish), but overall option volume is tiny, making the signal less reliable.
Financials show revenue growth but worsening profitability (losses), limiting confidence that a quick rebound is fundamentally supported.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.184) and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening, despite the stock being oversold.
RSI: RSI_6 at 15.81 → extreme oversold; bounce potential exists, but oversold can persist during breakdowns.
Moving averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 indicates a bullish longer-term MA structure, but today’s sharp selloff suggests price is likely diverging below key near-term levels (momentum currently dominates).
Levels: Pivot 13.314 (now far above price); S1 12.117 is broken; price 11.65 is close to S2 11.377 (next downside magnet/support).
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlesticks): expected drift remains negative (-3.17% next week, -3.64% next month), arguing against chasing a buy immediately.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning: Open Interest Put-Call Ratio = 0.19 → heavy call open interest vs puts (bullish tilt).
Activity: Option volume is extremely low (total volume 4; puts 0) → today’s options flow is not very informative.
Volatility: 30D IV ~107.46 with IV percentile ~94% → options are priced for very large moves; this often coincides with stress events and can persist while price trends down.
Interpretation: Despite bullish call-skew, the combination of high IV + minimal volume + price breakdown suggests options are not yet confirming a durable bottom.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Hedge funds are buying: reported buying amount increased ~362.67% over the last quarter (supportive medium-term signal).
- Extreme oversold RSI can spark a reflex bounce, especially near S2 (~11.38).
- Revenue growth remains positive (latest quarter up ~12.47% YoY).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Major downside momentum: large one-day drawdown (-13.63%) plus further pre-market weakness (-4.59%) indicates active selling pressure.
- Bearish momentum expansion (MACD histogram increasingly negative) suggests the move may not be finished.
- No recent news catalysts to explain a near-term reversal; absent a trigger, technicals can keep dominating.
- Options imply very high uncertainty (IV percentile ~94%), often consistent with unstable price action.
- Model-based near-term trend projection is negative over 1 week and 1 month.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q2.
Revenue: 210.508M, +12.47% YoY (top-line growth is improving).
Profitability: Net income -0.894M, down -83.84% YoY (worsening results vs prior year).
EPS: -0.03, down -85.00% YoY (earnings trend deteriorated).
Gross margin: 6.24, +7.22% YoY (some improvement, but overall profitability remains weak/negative).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating or price target change data was provided, so there’s no clear read on recent Wall Street revisions.
Practical “pros vs cons” view from available signals:
- Pros: hedge funds buying strongly; revenue growth positive.
- Cons: earnings deterioration and a sharp technical breakdown today argue the Street would likely stay cautious until stability/confirmation returns.
Politicians/influential figures: no recent congress trading data available (no visibility into political accumulation/distribution).

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MTRX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTRX is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 11.250

Low

Averages

High

Current: 11.250

Low

Averages

High

DA Davidson

Buy

downgrade

$18 -> $17

AI Analysis

2025-09-11

Reason

DA Davidson

Price Target

$18 -> $17

AI Analysis

2025-09-11

downgrade

Buy

Reason

DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on Matrix Service to $17 from $18 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The company's net cash, improving revenue volume and future bookings prospects associated with power development are positives, but its progress toward profitability has not been linear, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

DA Davidson

Brent Thielman

Strong Buy

Maintains

$18 → $20

2025-02-11

Reason

DA Davidson

Brent Thielman

Price Target

$18 → $20

2025-02-11

Maintains

Strong Buy

Reason

MTRX Should I Buy

MTRX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Matrix Service Co (MTRX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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