Should I Buy MTDR? MTDR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Matador Resources Co (MTDR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

47.350

1 Day change

3.50%

52 Week Range

60.430

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is weakening (-3.09% today, -1.87% pre-market) and the near-term pattern odds lean slightly negative.
Technicals are neutral-to-mildly bullish (MACD > 0) but momentum is contracting, which often precedes chop or pullback rather than a clean breakout.
Options flow looks bullish (call-heavy volume), but overall participation is below average, so conviction is not strong.
Next real catalyst is earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-24 AH); with margins/EPS recently down YoY, risk/reward is not compelling ahead of the event.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram +0.284 (bullish territory) but positively contracting → weakening upside momentum.
RSI (6): 58.74 → neutral; not oversold (no forced bounce signal).
Moving averages: converging → consolidation/indecision; typically needs a catalyst or level break to resolve.
Key levels:
- Pivot/support: 44.50 (near-term line in the sand).
- Resistance: 46.55 (R1) then 47.81 (R2).
- If 44.50 fails, next supports: 42.45 (S1) and 41.18 (S2).
Pattern-based odds (similar candlesticks): ~50% chance of -1.39% next day, -0.27% next week, +0.45% next month → slightly soft near-term bias.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read:
- Open interest put/call 0.93 → positioning is close to balanced (not a strong fear signal).
- Volume put/call 0.11 → call volume dominates today (bullish short-term appetite).
Activity/conviction:
- Today’s total options volume 962, only ~44.7% of 30-day average → bullish tilt, but not high-conviction participation.
Volatility:
- 30D IV 43.68 vs historical vol 36.04 → options pricing in elevated movement (earnings ahead is a likely contributor).
- IV percentile 62.15 → moderately elevated vs its own history.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Possible technical bounce if price holds above the 44.50 pivot and reclaims 46.55 (R1).
- Options market is strongly call-skewed by volume today (near-term bullish sentiment).
- Earnings on 2026-02-24 (QDEC 2025) could re-rate the stock if capital efficiency/productivity improves or guidance surprises to the upside.
- Some Street support remains (e.g., BofA Buy; Citi Buy; JPM Overweight earlier).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price is under pressure today (down ~3%) and near-term pattern probabilities lean slightly negative.
- Earnings risk in ~3 weeks: last reported quarter showed YoY EPS and net income declines and margin compression.
- Analyst tone has recently turned more cautious (notably Wells Fargo downgrade and multiple target trims), which can cap rallies.
- Macro/sector overhangs referenced by analysts: oil oversupply concerns and variability in productivity/capital intensity.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $915.1M, +6.39% YoY (top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income $176.4M, -28.97% YoY (meaningful decline).
EPS: $1.42, -28.64% YoY (earnings contraction).
Gross margin: 35.08%, down 21.19% YoY (margin compression is the key negative trend).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: ratings/targets have skewed more cautious into late Jan 2026.
- 2026-01-27 Wells Fargo: Downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight; PT cut to $47 from $61 (highly negative signal).
- 2026-01-23 Morgan Stanley: Equal Weight, PT $52 (cut from $56).
- 2026-01-16 BofA: Buy, PT $52 (raised from $50).
- 2025-12-12 UBS: Neutral, PT $50 (raised from $46).
- 2025-12-12 Mizuho: Outperform, PT $70 (bull case outlier).
- 2025-12-08 Citi: Initiated Buy, PT $53.
- 2025-12-08 JPMorgan: Overweight, PT $52 (cut from $57).
Wall Street pros (bull case): Delaware Basin positioning/growth narrative; some firms still at Buy/Outperform with targets mostly ~$50–$53 (and Mizuho at $70).
Wall Street cons (bear case): capital intensity and productivity variability; macro oil supply risk; recent downgrade suggests risk/reward is now viewed as more balanced at current levels.

MTDR Should I Buy