Should I Buy MTB? MTB 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy M&T Bank Corp (MTB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

238.010

1 Day change

1.74%

52 Week Range

238.540

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended and momentum is overheated (RSI-6 ~88.5), which skews near-term odds toward a pullback/chop rather than clean upside follow-through.
Upside looks more limited versus Wall Street’s clustered price targets ($225–$236 area) with MTB already around $233; you’re paying up after a strong run.
If you already own it, it’s more of a hold / trim into strength setup than a fresh chase.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) confirms an ongoing uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive and expanding (1.348) = bullish momentum still intact.
Overbought risk: RSI_6 at 88.546 = strongly overbought; historically increases probability of near-term mean reversion.
Levels: Price (~233.15) is above R1 (232.404) and approaching R2 (237.693). Near-term support zones: Pivot 223.841, then S1 215.278.
Practical read: Trend is up, but entry timing is poor for an impatient buyer because you’re buying into resistance with stretched RSI.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow: Open interest put/call at 1.42 suggests heavier put positioning/hedging outstanding, while today’s volume put/call at 0.47 shows more call buying today (near-term bullish flow).
Volatility: IV30 ~24.23 vs historical vol ~19.98 (modest premium), but IV percentile ~25.5 / IV rank ~3.9 indicates IV is relatively low vs its own history (options not “expensive” relative to recent ranges).
Activity: Today’s option volume slightly above average (~106% of 30D avg), not an extreme sentiment signal—more consistent with routine participation than a big bet.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Operational catalyst: New Regional President for Massachusetts may support local growth/execution narrative (incremental, not a major rerating catalyst).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical timing: Extremely overbought RSI increases odds of a near-term pullback—bad for an impatient entry.
- Valuation/expectations risk (implied by ratings): Multiple downgrades (to Neutral/In Line/Peer Perform) suggest the improving outlook is increasingly “in the price.”
- Price target ceiling: Several prominent targets cluster below/near current price ($225–$236), limiting perceived upside.
- Supply/overhang headline: Company plans to sell ~~101.46K shares (~~$22.47M), which can cap momentum short term even if it’s routine.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $2.166B, +3.93% YoY (moderate top-line growth).
Net income: $718M, +11.49% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: $4.67, +20.98% YoY (strong per-share growth, supports the uptrend narrative).
Takeaway: Fundamentals are improving, but the stock price is already acting like the market recognizes it—reducing the attractiveness of chasing here.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Many firms raised price targets into/after Q4, but ratings have become more mixed with notable downgrades (Wolfe to Peer Perform; BofA to Neutral; Evercore to In Line).
Bull case (pros): RBC Outperform ($220) cites strong through-the-cycle credit/underwriting; Jefferies Buy ($255) and TD Cowen Buy ($250) see durable tailwinds and in-line guidance.
Cautious case (cons): BofA/Goldman/Evercore/Barclays mostly Neutral/Equal Weight/In Line around $225–$236, arguing limited idiosyncratic catalysts and that improving fundamentals are largely reflected.
Net read: Wall Street is not broadly bearish, but it’s not pounding the table at current levels—more “good bank, fairly priced” than “must buy now.”

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MTB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTB is 229.25 USD with a low forecast of 210 USD and a high forecast of 251 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

9 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 233.940

Low

210

Averages

229.25

High

251

Current: 233.940

Low

210

Averages

229.25

High

251

RBC Capital

Gerard Cassidy

Outperform

maintain

$210 -> $220

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

RBC Capital

Gerard Cassidy

Price Target

$210 -> $220

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

maintain

Outperform

Reason

RBC Capital analyst Gerard Cassidy raised the firm's price target on M&T Bank to $220 from $210 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat. The company "through-the-cycle" outperforms on credit, which is increasingly a topic of conversation among investors given the uncertain economic and geopolitical environment as its management knows in order to create long-term shareholder value, it must avoid credit debacles by adhering to strong underwriting standards, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Truist

Hold

maintain

$217 -> $230

2026-01-20

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$217 -> $230

2026-01-20

maintain

Hold

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on M&T Bank to $230 from $217 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat. The company's expenses had been a little higher than the guided midpoint, though its buybacks had also been a little lower than the guide CET1-implied, which account for the slight increase in the firm's expected 2027 EPS view to $22 from $21, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MTB

Unlock Now

MTB Should I Buy

MTB Should I Buy

Should You Buy M&T Bank Corp (MTB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch