Should I Buy MT? MT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ArcelorMittal SA (MT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

61.300

1 Day change

7.09%

52 Week Range

61.360

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Buy now (momentum + catalysts): Post-earnings beat and dividend raise are driving continuation upside while the broader market is down (S&P 500 -0.79%), showing relative strength.
Trend is clearly bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, MACD expanding). Near-term is somewhat stretched, but for an impatient buyer the tape still favors upside follow-through.
Key level to watch: price is already above R1 (57.485) and is pressing toward R2 (58.573); a clean push/hold above ~58.6 would confirm breakout strength. Closest support is the pivot ~55.724.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with stacked moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) = strong uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.294 and expanding = bullish momentum strengthening.
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 ~75 suggests the move is extended short-term (more prone to churn), but not a trend-break signal by itself.
Levels: Pivot 55.724 (near support), R1 57.485 (already reclaimed), R2 58.573 (next upside gate).
Pattern-based odds (given): ~60% chance of +1.56% next day, +2.35% next week, -0.29% next month—supports a near-term long bias.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (open interest): Put/Call OI ratio 0.8 = more calls than puts outstanding (generally constructive/bullish bias).
Flow (today’s volume): Put/Call volume ratio 1.19 = puts traded > calls today, suggesting some near-term hedging/profit-protection despite the rally.
Implied volatility: 30D IV 44.52 vs HV 31.1 and IV percentile 89.24 = options priced rich; market expects larger-than-usual moves (often around earnings/news).
Activity: Volume 2509 with ~120% of 30D average = elevated attention/participation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Operational/strategic: FY 2025 EBITDA cited at $6.5B and safety improvements—supports quality narrative.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Short-term technical stretch: RSI ~75 and price pushing into R2 ~58.573 can lead to near-term stall/chop.
- Options tape shows hedging: Put/call volume ratio 1.19 suggests some traders are buying protection even as OI is call-leaning.
- Elevated IV: High IV percentile can amplify swings (fast moves both ways), and can indicate the market is already pricing in a lot of good news.
- No supportive “smart money” trend signal: Hedge funds and insiders are listed as Neutral with no significant recent trend.
- Influential/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available (no visible political buy/sell confirmation in the provided data).

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue $15.657B (+3.03% YoY), Net Income $377M (+31.36% YoY), EPS $0.49 (+32.43% YoY)—profit growth outpacing revenue = improving operating leverage.
Latest earnings event (QDEC 2025, reported 2026-02-05 pre-market): Non-GAAP EPS 0.86 on revenue $14.97B, beating expectations—supports positive near-term trend continuation.
Capital return signal: Dividend base increase proposal reinforces management confidence in cash generation.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend (last ~1–2 months): Clear shift more bullish—multiple upgrades and price target raises.
Key recent actions:
- 2026-02-05: Santander upgraded to Outperform (EUR 55 PT).
- 2026-01-29: JPMorgan Overweight, PT raised to EUR 52.5 (from 45).
- 2026-01-22: Citi Buy, PT raised to EUR 55 (from 45).
- 2026-01-06: Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight and framed as Top Pick (PT EUR 46.2 from 33.7) on European earnings re-base/safeguards/CBAM.
- 2025-11-17: UBS downgraded to Neutral citing valuation after a rally (a notable dissent, but older than the recent upgrade wave).
Wall Street pros: Policy backdrop in Europe (trade protection/CBAM), operating leverage to an earnings re-base, and improving earnings delivery.
Wall Street cons: Valuation sensitivity after rallies (UBS view) and cyclical steel exposure (implied by the sector context), which can cap multiples when sentiment turns.

MT Should I Buy