Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is sitting just above first support (S1 ~175.31) with downside momentum still building (MACD histogram negative and expanding).
Options positioning is defensively skewed (puts dominating volume and OI), suggesting traders are still leaning bearish near-term.
Fundamentals and Wall Street targets are strong, but the current setup looks like a “catching a falling knife” entry unless you’re explicitly buying for a technical oversold bounce.
Congress trading over the last 90 days shows only sales (0 buys / 4 sells), which is an additional near-term sentiment headwind.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish short-term momentum. MACD histogram = -0.9 (below 0 and negatively expanding) signals selling pressure is increasing.
RSI: RSI_6 = 29.417 (oversold/near-oversold). This can support a short-term bounce, but oversold can persist while momentum stays negative.
Moving Averages: Converging moving averages = no clean trend confirmation; price action is the deciding factor and currently weak.
Levels:
Pivot: 181.201 (price 177.35 is below pivot → bearish bias)
Support: S1 175.31 then S2 171.671 (a break below ~175 can accelerate downside)
Resistance: R1 187.091 then R2 190.73 (needs reclaim of pivot/181 first)
Pattern-based forward look (similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of -0.67% next day, -0.88% next week, +1.58% next month → short-term drift lower before improvement.
Sentiment: Bearish/defensive. Put open interest exceeds calls (OI put/call 1.25) and put volume is heavily dominant (volume put/call 2.71).
Activity: Today’s option volume 13,291 is below typical (today vs 30D avg volume = 67), so bearish skew is notable but not on a “panic volume” day.
Volatility: IV 30d = 29.62 vs HV = 27.67 (options priced a bit rich); IV percentile 68.13 suggests relatively elevated implied vol versus its recent distribution, consistent with uncertainty/hedging demand.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
with double-digit revenue growth and ~20% EPS growth supports the longer-term bull case.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical damage: price below pivot and MACD worsening implies higher probability of further weakness before a durable bounce.
Options market skew is bearish (puts dominating both OI and volume), which often aligns with cautious near-term positioning.
Congress trading (last 90 days): 4 sales, 0 buys (median ~$0.8M) → influential-flow signal leans cautious.
News flow in the provided summary is not directly MS-positive today (mostly other companies/industry items), so there’s no clear immediate headline catalyst to reverse momentum.
Recent trend: Clear upward bias in price targets through January 2026 (multiple raises: Barclays to $219, BofA to $220, Wolfe to $211, RBC to $207, Goldman to $190, KBW up to $210).
Ratings mix: Predominantly constructive (Buy/Outperform/Overweight) with some moderates (Neutral/Hold/Sector Perform).
Wall Street pros: diversified model (Institutional Securities + Wealth + Investment Mgmt), strong quarter performance, and capacity for capital return (buybacks/dividends).
Wall Street cons: some firms remain neutral/hold, implying valuation and cycle sensitivity (IB/trading activity, macro/rates) can cap near-term upside even with strong execution.
Wall Street analysts forecast MS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MS is 185 USD with a low forecast of 132 USD and a high forecast of 219 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MS is 185 USD with a low forecast of 132 USD and a high forecast of 219 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 175.840
Low
132
Averages
185
High
219
Current: 175.840
Low
132
Averages
185
High
219
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
upgrade
$202 -> $210
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$202 -> $210
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
upgrade
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Morgan Stanley to $210 from $202 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm has a constructive outlook looking ahead, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
RBC Capital
Sector Perform
maintain
$185 -> $207
2026-01-16
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$185 -> $207
2026-01-16
maintain
Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on Morgan Stanley to $207 from $185 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company's diversified investment services business model, with three primary growth engines - Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management - delivered strong results in the quarter, led by its premier investment banking and trading businesses, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan's Stanley's Wealth Management division also generated a record 31.0% pre-tax margin, and its strong excess capital position should allow the bank to reward shareholders with common share repurchases and increased dividends, the firm added.
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