Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price action is still bearish (MACD negative and worsening) despite being oversold.
A short-term bounce is possible given RSI=19, but there is no confirmed reversal signal and the stock is trading below the pivot (3.488).
Options positioning is very call-heavy (bullish skew), but actual volume is tiny today, so sentiment is not strongly validated by flow.
Fundamentals are the bigger problem: 2025/Q3 showed sharp YoY revenue decline and margin compression, which can keep pressure on the stock into the next earnings (2026-03-02).
Trend/mean reversion: RSI_6 = 19.21 signals deeply oversold conditions (bounce risk), but oversold alone is not a buy trigger.
Momentum: MACD histogram = -0.073, below 0 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is still strengthening.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest consolidation, but without bullish momentum confirmation.
Levels:
Support: S1 = 3.219 (already below it at 3.165), then S2 = 3.052 (next key downside level).
Resistance: Pivot = 3.488 (must reclaim to improve setup), then R1 = 3.757.
Near-term probabilistic trend (pattern analogs): modest upside bias next day/week, essentially flat over a month → aligns with “possible bounce” but not a clean trend reversal.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/skew: Open interest put-call ratio = 0.10 (calls dominate OI) → bullish positioning bias.
Flow today: put volume = 0 vs call volume = 34 (put-call volume ratio = 0), but total volume is extremely small, limiting signal quality.
Volatility: 30D IV = 143.53 vs historical vol = 62.78 → options are pricing very large moves; IV percentile ~57.77 (mid-range elevated).
Activity vs normal: today’s option volume is ~9.24x the 30D avg, but that’s driven by a low baseline; still not large absolute flow.
Options market skew is call-heavy (very low OI put-call ratio), suggesting market participants are positioned for upside.
Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-03-02 after hours) can act as an event catalyst if results/guidance stabilize.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increase the risk that rallies fade until visibility improves.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 41.63M, down -39.69% YoY (material contraction).
Net income: -25.56M (loss widened), down -73.67% YoY.
EPS: -0.18, down -73.91% YoY.
Gross margin: 13.58%, down -70.92% YoY → indicates significant margin compression and/or unfavorable mix; this is a key overhang until it stabilizes.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street actions show cautious bullishness but reduced confidence after weak execution:
2025-11-07 Stifel: Buy maintained, price target cut to $4 from $5 (Q3 revenue miss; called shares “washed out” but low visibility).
2025-12-15 Wells Fargo: Overweight maintained, target raised to $4.50 from $4 (more constructive setup for tools as policy uncertainty lifts).
Wall Street pros: low-dollar targets still imply upside from ~$3.17, and at least two firms maintain positive ratings.
Wall Street cons: targets were adjusted around operational misses/visibility issues; fundamentals (revenue/margins) need to prove a turn for a durable re-rate.
Wall Street analysts forecast MRVI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRVI is 4.25 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 4.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MRVI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRVI is 4.25 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 4.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 3.090
Low
4
Averages
4.25
High
4.5
Current: 3.090
Low
4
Averages
4.25
High
4.5
Wells Fargo
Brandon Couillard
maintain
$4
AI Analysis
2025-12-15
Reason
Wells Fargo
Brandon Couillard
Price Target
$4
AI Analysis
2025-12-15
maintain
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Brandon Couillard raised the firm's price target on Maravai Lifesciences to $4.50 from $4 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With U.S. policy uncertainty lifting on Pharma and forward growth expectations already well-anchored with room for upside, the firm likes the setup for Tools.
Stifel
Buy
downgrade
$5 -> $4
2025-11-07
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$5 -> $4
2025-11-07
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Maravai Lifesciences to $4 from $5 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Maravai posted a Q3 miss with revenue of $42M coming in below the $50M consensus view, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that Maravai looks "fairly washed out" at the $2-$3 level, but with a new management team and low visibility, the shares are appropriate for only the intrepid right now.
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