Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is sitting exactly on key support (~79.76) with downside momentum still active (MACD worsening).
While the stock is technically oversold and could bounce, the trend/demand for shares from informed holders is negative (hedge funds and insiders net selling).
Near-term setup is more “wait for confirmation” than “buy immediately”: a break below ~79.75 risks a quick move toward ~73.32.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Current price 79.76 is essentially at S1 support (79.757). Next support S2 is 73.316; overhead pivot resistance is 90.184 then 100.611.
Momentum: MACD histogram -2.993 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
RSI: RSI(6) at 26.335 indicates oversold conditions (bounce potential), but oversold alone isn’t a trend reversal.
Moving averages: “Converging” suggests the stock is in a reset phase, but without bullish crossover confirmation.
Probabilistic trend read: Pattern-based projection shows weak near-term edge (next week skew -1.04%) with only modest 1-month upside (+2.09%), consistent with a choppy base-building phase rather than a clean uptrend.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open Interest put-call ratio 0.58 leans bullish (more calls outstanding vs puts).
Flow today: Option volume put-call ratio 0.98 is essentially neutral (puts ~calls).
Activity/attention: Today’s option volume is very elevated vs 30-day average (+492%), signaling heightened event-driven trading.
Volatility: IV(30d) 54.33 vs historical volatility 90.13 suggests options are not pricing as extreme a move as the stock recently delivered; IV percentile 62.55 indicates IV is moderately high vs its own history.
Takeaway: Options market is not screaming panic (volume P/C ~1), but the stock’s recent violent move is still influencing positioning and trade interest.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
earnings beat: adjusted EPS came in at 0.16 with revenue 233M (+4.3% YoY), and record orders/bookings (~288M) per the news summary.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Post-earnings reaction risk: despite beating expectations, the stock recently dropped sharply (~19% noted in news), indicating fragile sentiment and high expectation sensitivity.
Guidance/visibility: management’s cautious guide described as an “overhang” (RBC), which can cap near-term multiple expansion.
Smart-money selling signals: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount +387.56% QoQ) and insiders are selling (selling amount +1,538,601.79% MoM), which is a meaningful near-term headwind.
No supportive political flow: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: FY2026 Q2.
Revenue: 232.872M, up +4.37% YoY (modest growth).
Profitability: Net income -15.095M (still a loss, and worse YoY by -14.13%); EPS -0.25 (down -16.67% YoY).
Quality note: News/analyst commentary points to strong free cash flow relative to expectations, which is a positive offset to GAAP losses, but the reported margin trend still argues for caution on “buy now.”
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets moved up sharply after Q2 results (RBC to 105, Truist to 109, Canaccord to 102), reinforcing a stronger bull case around execution and cash flow.
Bear view still present: Goldman maintains a Sell (latest PT raised previously to 55) citing valuation concerns vs mid-single-digit growth/margin outlook.
Wall Street pros: improving execution, better cash flow, operational focus on working capital and deliveries, maintained FY26 guidance.
Wall Street cons: valuation sensitivity, cautious guidance/visibility, and uneven market reaction even on “beats,” implying the stock can stay volatile and range-bound until momentum turns.
Wall Street analysts forecast MRCY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRCY is 81.2 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 102 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MRCY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRCY is 81.2 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 102 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 79.070
Low
49
Averages
81.2
High
102
Current: 79.070
Low
49
Averages
81.2
High
102
RBC Capital
Outperform
maintain
$95 -> $105
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$95 -> $105
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Outperform
Reason
RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on Mercury Systems to $105 from $95 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company reported a Q2 earnings beat that continues to support its strong execution narrative, though the management's cautious guide is an overhang, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Truist
Buy
maintain
$102 -> $109
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$102 -> $109
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Truist raised the firm's price target on Mercury Systems to $109 from $102 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company beat consensus across the board, with free cash flows coming in materially ahead of the Street, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The management is focused on improving working capital through supply chain, accelerating customer deliveries, and demand planning, Truist added.
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