Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is decisively bearish and there’s no proprietary buy signal to override the setup.
Price is sitting just above key support (6.14–6.26). A small dead-cat bounce is possible, but probability favors continued weakness unless it reclaims resistance (6.46+).
Options positioning (put-heavy OI) and extremely elevated IV suggest defensive sentiment rather than confident upside betting.
Fundamentals in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) deteriorated sharply (revenue down big, EPS negative), which weakens the “buy the dip” case.
Trend: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 (downtrend across timeframes).
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0411) and expanding lower → selling pressure is strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~20.6 reads as deeply oversold (even if labeled “neutral” in the feed), which can create short-lived bounces, but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Levels: Current ~6.15 is right on S2 (6.14) and below S1 (6.263) and Pivot (6.461). A clean break below ~6.14 increases downside risk; reclaiming ~6.46 is needed to improve the chart.
Pattern-probabilities provided: modest upside bias statistically (+1.09% next day, +2.2% next week), but this is small relative to the bearish technicals and high IV environment.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put open interest (146) > call open interest (80) → OI put/call 1.83 indicates bearish/hedged positioning.
Activity: Options volume is 0 today (calls 0, puts 0) → very thin/illiquid read-through from volume; sentiment signal mainly from open interest.
Volatility: 30D IV ~102% vs historical vol ~28.8% with IV percentile ~84 → options are pricing unusually large moves; this often aligns with caution/uncertainty.
Positioning note: With IV this high, directional long calls are expensive; the options market is not telegraphing a strong bullish conviction.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
can trigger a short-term bounce.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
while IV is extremely elevated → market is positioned defensively.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 5,256,000 (down -62.93% YoY) → severe top-line contraction.
Net income: -1,137,000 (down -122.90% YoY) → moved further into loss.
EPS: -0.05 (down -121.74% YoY) → profitability trend is negative.
Gross margin: 20.87 (down -61.31% YoY) → major margin compression.
Overall: The latest quarter shows clear deterioration (growth and profitability both weakening), which does not support an aggressive buy-now stance.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating / price-target change data was provided, so a recent Street-trend read (upgrades/downgrades or target revisions) cannot be confirmed from this dataset.
Wall Street pros/cons view (based on provided fundamentals/market signals only):
Pros: Potential yield/BDC appeal (not quantified here) and possible bounce from oversold technicals.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential figure activity was provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast MRCC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRCC is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast MRCC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRCC is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Buy
Hold
Sell
0
Current: 6.170
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
0
Current: 6.170
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
Oppenheimer
Chris Kotowski
Hold
Maintains
$9 → $8
AI Analysis
2025-03-04
Reason
Oppenheimer
Chris Kotowski
Price Target
$9 → $8
AI Analysis
2025-03-04
Maintains
Hold
Reason
Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on Monroe Capital to $8 from $9 and keeps a Perform rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm notes Monroe Capital lost (8c)/share in Q4, and says it estimates that it can earn $1.02/share and $1.00/share in 2025 and 2026, respectively, for an ROE of 11.5% and 11.3%.
