Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the chart setup is bearish (downtrend + negative momentum), and the provided pattern-based forward bias points to additional near-term downside.
Fundamentals/news flow are strong (DCF coverage, distribution growth, 2026 capex plan), which supports holding/income thesis—but technicals suggest a better entry is likely than today’s price.
Trend/momentum: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 (downtrend across timeframes).
MACD: Histogram -0.216 and negatively expanding → downside momentum still building, not stabilizing yet.
RSI (6): 14.521 (deep oversold) → conditions favor a bounce, but oversold can persist in a downtrend.
Levels: Provided pivot framework shows prior resistance bands (R1 51.21, R2 52.081) now far below current price (56.285), which is inconsistent with a fresh breakout; combined with bearish MAs, it reads more like a late/extended price area rather than a clean support-defined entry.
Quant/pattern read: Similar-pattern study suggests ~-7.73% next week bias (near-term risk dominates).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Very low put/call on both open interest (0.23) and volume (0.06) → options market is skewed bullish/low-hedge.
Activity: Today’s volume 1417 vs 30D avg participation at ~55% → not a “high-conviction” options day.
Volatility: 30D IV 19.09 vs HV 15.26 (IV > HV) and IV percentile ~51.79 → options pricing is mid-range; not screaming fear/forced hedging.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Earnings/news momentum: Q4 2025 results beat on EPS ($1.17) and showed net income up 8.5% YoY (per news summary).
Cash return support: 2025 distributable cash flow $5.8B with ~1.4x coverage of nearly 8% yield (supports ongoing distributions).
Growth visibility: 2026 $2.4B capital plan focused on natural gas/NGL services; management commentary/news points to continued EBITDA/distribution growth trajectory.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical risk: Downtrend + deteriorating MACD increases odds that “oversold” becomes a continuation move before any durable rebound.
Short-horizon model bias: Similar-candlestick projection flags meaningful 1-week downside.
Analyst signal drift: Recent downgrade (Raymond James to Market Perform) suggests upside may now depend more on execution than rerating.
Influential flows: No supportive signal from congress trading data (none available), and hedge/insider trends are reported as neutral.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $3.097B, +7.09% YoY.
Net income: $1.193B, +9.35% YoY.
EPS: $1.17, +9.35% YoY.
Gross margin: 47.3%, +4.58% YoY.
Takeaway: Fundamentals show steady growth and strong profitability, consistent with distribution sustainability—but this strength is not currently being confirmed by price momentum.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets were raised into late 2025 (Barclays to $55, RBC to $60, Morgan Stanley to $62), then Raymond James downgraded to Market Perform (no PT) on 2026 execution focus.
Street “pros” view: Contracted/visible midstream cash flows, distribution growth runway, and project timeline visibility into 2026+.
Street “cons” view: After strong performance, the group’s next leg likely requires execution delivery rather than multiple expansion; near-term upside may be more capped unless results keep surprising.
Wall Street analysts forecast MPLX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPLX is 58.14 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MPLX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPLX is 58.14 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 56.420
Low
55
Averages
58.14
High
62
Current: 56.420
Low
55
Averages
58.14
High
62
Raymond James
Justin Jenkins
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
Reason
Raymond James
Justin Jenkins
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins downgraded MPLX to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm adjusted ratings in the midstream supplier group heading into 2026. Midstream enters 2026 with momentum, but "constructive" share performances 2025 "means the real work now shifts to execution," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James believes investor focus is now centered on how individual companies translate macro tailwinds into realizable cash flow.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
maintain
$60 -> $62
2025-11-25
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$60 -> $62
2025-11-25
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on MPLX to $62 from $60 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. AI scrutiny has influenced recent broader market direction, but midstream and renewable infrastructure stocks offer contracted cash flow protection, the analyst argues in the firm's latest "Infrastructure Weekly."
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