Should I Buy MPAA? MPAA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Motorcar Parts of America Inc (MPAA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

13.140

1 Day change

2.74%

52 Week Range

18.120

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is below the key pivot (12.884) and drifting toward support (12.402) with weak momentum.
No Intellectia edge today: AI Stock Picker and SwingMax both show no signal, so there’s no strong tactical “must-buy-now” setup.
Earnings are 2026-02-09 pre-market, and options imply elevated uncertainty (IV percentile ~96.8%); without a clear bullish technical trigger, buying ahead of earnings is not attractive.
If you want exposure, a better immediate plan is to wait for either (1) a bounce/close back above 12.884–13.36 or (2) a clean dip-and-hold above 12.10–12.40 support; as of now, it’s a HOLD/avoid new buys.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.00444) but positively contracting, signaling fading bullish momentum rather than strengthening upside.
RSI (6): 41.23, leaning weak/soft demand (not oversold, but not showing strength).
Moving averages: converging, consistent with consolidation/chop rather than a clean uptrend.
Key levels: Pivot 12.884 (price 12.70 is below it = bearish bias). Near-term support S1 12.402 then S2 12.105; resistance R1 13.365 then R2 13.662.
Pattern-based odds: modeled path suggests modest near-term upside (next day/week) but negative 1-month tilt (-1.15%), aligning with “no rush to buy today.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning: Open interest put/call ratio ~0.95 is roughly balanced (no strong fear or strong bullish crowding).
Activity: Option volume is 0 today (thin/illiquid tape at the moment), so real-time options sentiment is limited.
Volatility: 30D IV ~123.4% with IV percentile ~96.8% (very elevated), consistent with meaningful event risk (earnings in a few days) and “expensive” options pricing.
Takeaway: Options market is pricing big uncertainty; without a bullish technical breakout or proprietary buy signal, that’s not a strong backdrop for buying common shares immediately.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings (2026-02-09 pre-market) could act as a catalyst if margins/profitability surprise positively.
- Analyst coverage: Freedom Capital initiated with a Buy and $20 PT, highlighting resilient, non-discretionary replacement demand driven by an aging, high-mileage vehicle fleet.
- Revenue trend remains positive in the latest reported quarter (2026/Q2 +6.38% YoY).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Pre-earnings uncertainty is high (IV percentile ~96.8%), increasing the chance of sharp post-earnings repricing.
- Profitability deterioration in the latest quarter: net loss and EPS worse YoY; gross margin also down.
- Price action is weak today (-3.20%) and below pivot (12.884); a breakdown toward 12.40/12.10 is plausible without a reversal.
- No supportive flow signals: hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral; no notable recent news to change the narrative.
- No recent Congress trading data available (no external “influential buyer” signal).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q2.
Revenue: $221.47M, up 6.38% YoY (top-line growth is intact).
Profitability: Net income -$2.149M (down 27.25% YoY), EPS -0.11 (down 26.67% YoY) — losses deepened.
Margins: Gross margin 19.61%, down 1.11% YoY — suggests cost pressure and/or pricing mix headwinds.
Overall: growth exists, but it’s currently not converting into improving earnings power, which keeps the stock from being a clean “buy now” ahead of earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating trend: One notable action — Freedom Capital initiated coverage (2025-12-12) with a Buy and $20 price target.
Wall Street pros: Non-discretionary replacement parts exposure; steady demand tailwind from aging vehicle fleet; potential for steady sales growth.
Wall Street cons: Current profitability/margin compression and net losses create execution risk; the market may demand clear evidence of margin recovery (likely around earnings) before re-rating the stock.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MPAA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPAA is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 12.790

Low

Averages

High

Current: 12.790

Low

Averages

High

Freedom Capital

NULL -> Buy

initiated

$20

AI Analysis

2025-12-12

Reason