Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: near-term technicals are weakening (negative/expanding MACD) and the short-horizon pattern odds tilt slightly bearish for the coming week.
Recent Scotiabank upgrade is constructive, but the broader Street tone has been mixed with multiple recent downgrades/price-target trims—suggesting limited near-term conviction.
Options positioning looks bullish (low put/call ratios), but elevated implied volatility implies the market is pricing meaningful event/commodity risk into the next month.
No supportive signal from Intellectia models today: AI Stock Picker and SwingMax both show no entry signal.
No notable insider/hedge fund trend and no recent congress trading data to reinforce a “buy now” decision.
Bottom line: Hold / wait rather than buying immediately at $27.90; the setup lacks a strong technical or proprietary-signal trigger despite improving longer-cycle fundamentals.
Price is down sharply today (-3.21%) and is trading below the pivot (27.973), a near-term bearish/weak posture.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0492 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is building rather than stabilizing.
RSI(6) 45.55 (neutral) → not oversold; there’s room for further downside before a classic “bounce” condition.
Moving averages are converging → trend is indecisive, but MACD suggests the balance is currently leaning lower.
Key levels: Support S1 27.033 then S2 26.453; resistance R1 28.913 then R2 29.493. A convincing reclaim of ~28.0–28.9 would improve the buy case.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/call ratios are bullish/constructive (puts relatively light vs calls), especially on volume (0.13).
Volatility: 30D IV 44.96 vs HV 34.1 and IV percentile 85.26 → options are expensive; the market is pricing elevated near-term uncertainty (often around commodities/earnings).
Activity: Today’s volume (~11.8k) is below the 30-day average (92.6% of avg), so the bullish ratio isn’t necessarily a “panic hedge” signal—more like steady optimism.
Interpretation: Options lean bullish, but high IV says the market expects a sizable move; that reduces the attractiveness of chasing shares immediately after a down day unless the chart confirms a reversal.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Analyst catalyst: Scotiabank upgrade to Outperform with $36 PT (views phosphate stripping margins bottoming; tighter market balance as demand recovers; potential downside risk to ammonia/sulphur costs).
Sector thesis support: Several analysts cite a firmer 2026 potential on tighter phosphate supply and Brazil demand recovery.
Earnings ahead (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-24 after hours) can serve as a catalyst if volumes/margins stabilize or guidance improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term operational/demand concerns: commentary around Brazil softness and SSP curtailments; “no clear catalyst for improving demand this crop year” noted by Oppenheimer (recent downgrade).
Commodity/input risk: phosphate price uncertainty plus higher input costs can pressure margins.
Technical pressure: downside momentum is currently increasing (negative expanding MACD) and price is below pivot.
Event risk: elevated implied volatility into the next month signals the market expects meaningful movement (earnings/commodity sensitivity).
Pattern-based short-term outlook provided: higher likelihood of slight weakness over the next week (-2.92% estimate).
Takeaway: Fundamentals (as of 2025/Q3) look materially improved YoY, but the market is focused on near-term volumes/demand and commodity/input swings into early 2026.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is mixed: a fresh upgrade (Scotiabank to Outperform, $36) contrasts with a recent downgrade to Perform (Oppenheimer) and several price-target trims/neutral stances (Wells Fargo, RBC, Mizuho, JPMorgan).
Wall Street pros (bull case): phosphate margin bottoming, tighter supply/demand balance into 2026, potential Brazil recovery, constructive potash backdrop.
Wall Street cons (bear case): weak near-term demand catalysts, Brazil softness, uncertainty in phosphate pricing, higher input costs, and limited near-term visibility.
Net: Street sentiment is improving at the margin due to Scotiabank, but overall remains cautious/neutral-leaning given near-term headwinds.
Wall Street analysts forecast MOS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MOS is 32.38 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 43 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MOS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MOS is 32.38 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 43 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 27.760
Low
24
Averages
32.38
High
43
Current: 27.760
Low
24
Averages
32.38
High
43
Scotiabank
Sector Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$36
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
Scotiabank
Price Target
$36
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
upgrade
Sector Perform -> Outperform
Reason
Scotiabank upgraded Mosaic to Outperform from Sector Perform with a $36 price target. The firm sees a phosphate stripping margin bottom, saying the market balance should tighten when demand recovers. This is further supported by downside price risk to ammonia and sulphur, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Scotiabank cites its phosphate outlook and valuation for the upgrade of Mosaic.
Scotiabank
Ben Isaacson
Sector Perform
to
Outperform
upgrade
$36
2026-02-02
Reason
Scotiabank
Ben Isaacson
Price Target
$36
2026-02-02
upgrade
Sector Perform
to
Outperform
Reason
Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson upgraded Mosaic to Outperform from Sector Perform with a $36 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MOS
