Should I Buy MOH? MOH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

131.720

1 Day change

-25.51%

52 Week Range

359.970

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 and MACD histogram is negative and expanding), so the path of least resistance remains down.
Earnings are scheduled 2026-02-05 after hours (QDEC 2025), which adds near-term event risk; with the stock sitting near support, a miss or weak outlook could break support quickly.
Options are pricing elevated uncertainty (very high IV percentile), so “buying now” is more of a coin-flip than an edge.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5; momentum still deteriorating.
MACD: Histogram -2.749 (below 0) and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing.
RSI (6): 30.217 (near oversold). This can support a bounce, but by itself it’s not a reliable “buy now” trigger while MACD/MA trend remain bearish.
Levels: Price ~179.67 is very close to S1 = 177.92; a breakdown opens room toward S2 = 171.54. Upside recovery would first need to reclaim the Pivot = 188.23, then R1 = 198.54.
Pattern-based short-term odds: Model shows only modest/negative drift (next day ~-0.6% probability edge), consistent with “no strong long entry edge today.”

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put open interest slightly exceeds calls (OI P/C 1.07) → mild bearish-to-defensive positioning.
Flow today: Volume P/C 0.89 (calls slightly heavier than puts) → modestly positive on the day, but not decisive.
Volatility: 30D IV 65.9 vs HV 40.84 and IV percentile 95.22 → options imply unusually high uncertainty (often around catalysts like earnings). This usually reduces the attractiveness of “buying right now” unless you have a strong directional edge.
Activity: Today’s volume (1103) is below 5D/10D averages (~~4629/~~4567), suggesting no strong conviction flow into the event.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst tone improving in early Jan 2026: multiple price target increases and several Outperform/Overweight ratings suggest Wall Street sees 2026 recovery potential in managed care.
- Potential sector setup: Some analysts expect a 2026 turnaround/margin expansion backdrop for managed care.
- Technical bounce potential: RSI near 30 and price near S1 can produce sharp reflex rallies if earnings/outlook surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Primary issue: bearish technical trend (downward MAs + worsening MACD) increases the odds that support breaks rather than holds.
- Earnings catalyst risk (2026-02-05 after hours): with price sitting near support, downside gap risk is meaningful if results/guidance disappoint.
- Profitability pressure shown in latest reported quarter: sharp YoY drops in net income/EPS and gross margin point to utilization/MLR and cost pressure concerns.
- News feed provided is not MOH-specific (references Integer Holdings), so it does not offer a clear positive catalyst for MOH from the supplied headlines.
- No supportive “smart money” impulse: hedge fund and insider trends are described as neutral.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $11.477B, +11.0% YoY (top-line growth remains solid).
Net Income: $79M, -75.77% YoY (major profitability deterioration).
EPS: 1.50, -73.45% YoY (earnings compression is severe).
Gross Margin: 12.09, -24.25% YoY (margin pressure consistent with higher costs/utilization and/or pricing mismatch).
Takeaway: growth exists, but the trend that matters for the stock near-term is margin/earnings recovery, which the market will likely focus on in the upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (early Jan 2026): Several firms raised price targets (Mizuho to 220, Wells Fargo to 208, Bernstein to 224), indicating improved medium-term expectations.
Mixed/dissenting views: Truist kept Hold and cut PT to 175; Barclays remains Underweight (PT 164). Jefferies also Hold (PT 160). This split signals continued uncertainty.
Wall Street “pros” case: 2026 margin recovery potential, sector turnaround thesis, and attractive entry points per some research.
Wall Street “cons” case: continued Medicaid/Exchange uncertainty and membership/pricing/utilization risk; near-term earnings volatility.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available (and no politician activity provided).

14 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MOH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MOH is 180.85 USD with a low forecast of 155 USD and a high forecast of 250 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

9 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 176.840

Low

155

Averages

180.85

High

250

Current: 176.840

Low

155

Averages

180.85

High

250

Mizuho

Ann Hynes

Outperform

maintain

$200 -> $220

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Mizuho

Ann Hynes

Price Target

$200 -> $220

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes raised the firm's price target on Molina Healthcare to $220 from $200 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the healthcare facilities and managed care group as part of a Q4 preview. Mizuho's physician survey indicated healthcare utilization growth trends decelerated sequentially despite easier year-over-year comps, which could indicate trend is peaking, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Wells Fargo

Stephen Baxter

Overweight

maintain

$165 -> $208

2026-01-07

Reason

Wells Fargo

Stephen Baxter

Price Target

$165 -> $208

2026-01-07

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Baxter raised the firm's price target on Molina Healthcare to $208 from $165 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. For managed care organizations, the firm is most constructive on Medicare Advantage with uncertainty high for Medicaid/Exchanges. Wells sees a more difficult backdrop for hospitals in 2026 as post-COVID tailwinds wane and legislative risks near. Distributor debate remains revisions vs. multiples.

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MOH Should I Buy

MOH Should I Buy

Should You Buy Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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