Should I Buy MO? MO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Altria Group Inc (MO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

65.400

1 Day change

0.02%

52 Week Range

68.600

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price ($64.93) is sitting just below near-term resistance (R1 ~$65.46) with limited upside vs. Street targets ($64–$68 range) and recent fundamentals/news skewing mixed-to-negative.
Technically constructive (bullish MAs + positive MACD), but the setup looks late-in-move / near resistance, making risk-reward less attractive for immediate entry.
Options sentiment is modestly bullish (put-call ratios < 1) and IV is low, but it’s not strong enough to outweigh weak volume/market-share trends from the latest quarter.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.
Influential/insider/congress activity doesn’t provide a fresh tailwind (insiders neutral; no congress data).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, suggesting an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.311 and expanding (bullish momentum continuation).
RSI: RSI_6 = 66.24 (upper-neutral; not overbought yet, but getting closer to stretched).
Key levels: Pivot 62.86 (important support); Resistance R1 65.46 then R2 67.07; Supports S1 60.26, S2 58.65.
Near-term pattern expectancy (similar candlesticks): ~+1.18% 1-week, +1.08% 1-month suggests mild drift higher, not a sharp breakout signal.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios below 1 (OI PCR 0.76, Volume PCR 0.47) indicate more call interest/flow than puts (mildly bullish sentiment).
Volatility: 30D IV 18.38% is below historical vol 29.73%; IV percentile 25.9 / IV rank 12.77 = relatively low IV (options not pricing big moves).
Activity: Today’s option volume ~25.3k, about 80% of 30-day average (not a “crowded” or urgent options day).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strong income appeal: dividend yield referenced at ~6.96% (supports demand from yield-focused buyers).
- Brand dominance: Marlboro still controls ~40% of U.S. cigarette market (scale advantage).
- Street still generally constructive: multiple Buy ratings and targets clustering mid-to-high $60s.
- Technicals remain supportive (bullish MA stack + positive MACD).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Latest quarter narrative: cigarette shipment volumes down 7.9% (Q4) and Marlboro share down to 39.8% (pressure on core franchise).
- Oral products weakness: shipment volumes down 6.3% and nicotine pouch share down to 13.4%.
- Earnings disappointment: adjusted EPS reported miss vs expectations (per news), and stock sold off on results.
- With price already ~mid-$60s, upside to many targets looks compressed, especially for an impatient entry.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $5.079B, -0.53% YoY (slight contraction).
Profitability: Net income $1.114B, -63.25% YoY (sharp decline).
EPS: 0.66, -63.13% YoY (sharp decline).
Gross margin: 70.66% (+0.11% YoY) (margin resilience, but not enough to offset earnings decline).
Takeaway: top line roughly flat, but earnings power weakened materially in the quarter—consistent with the negative volume/share news.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Overall trend: Ratings remain Buy-leaning, but targets have been mixed (some trims, some raises).
Recent changes:
- Stifel (2026-01-30): Buy maintained; PT cut to $68 from $72 on softer underlying ops/cost pressures.
- UBS (2026-01-26): Buy maintained; PT raised to $67 from $63 (risks viewed manageable; expects better growth 2026–27).
- UBS (2026-01-09): Upgraded to Buy; PT $63 (thesis: worst of volume declines may be behind).
- BofA (2025-12-19): Buy maintained; PT cut to $64 from $66.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: dividend/income profile, perceived stabilization potential, earnings visibility improving into 2026.
- Cons: ongoing volume/share erosion (combustibles and pouches) and cost pressure—keeping targets from expanding aggressively.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MO is 65.6 USD with a low forecast of 57 USD and a high forecast of 72 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 65.390

Low

Averages

65.6

High

Current: 65.390

Low

Averages

65.6

High

Stifel

Buy

downgrade

$72 -> $68

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$72 -> $68

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Altria Group to $68 from $72 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. EPS of $1.30 was flat to the prior year in Q4 and in line with the firm's estimate, but the underlying operating performance was softer than expected with higher operating costs in both the Smokable and Oral Products businesses, the analyst tells investors. Initial 2026 guidance bracketed consensus, but is second half weighted, the analyst added.

UBS

Buy

maintain

$63 -> $67

2026-01-26

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$63 -> $67

2026-01-26

maintain

Buy

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on Altria Group to $67 from $63 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Risks, including concerns around combustible volume mix, duty drawback benefits, and declining nicotine pouch volumes, are manageable, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite slower smoke-free progress, Altria is positioned to return to revenue growth and accelerate EPS in 2026-2027, the firm says.

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MO Should I Buy

MO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Altria Group Inc (MO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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