Not a good buy right now: price is in a clear downtrend (bearish MA stack) and trading well below key pivot/support levels, signaling weak demand.
Options show some bullish positioning (call-leaning volume/OI), but implied volatility is very elevated vs historical, suggesting “expensive optimism” into a catalyst rather than a clean low-risk entry.
Fundamentals and Street tone are mixed-to-negative recently (downgrade + price-target cuts) and the latest reported quarter shows profitability deterioration (net loss, margin compression).
With an impatient profile (no waiting for perfect timing), the current tape does not justify initiating a new long position ahead of earnings; avoid/exit rather than buy.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), consistent with a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.0123) but positively contracting—typically a weak/fragile bounce attempt rather than a confirmed reversal.
RSI(6) at 33.829: near oversold territory; can support short-lived bounces, but by itself does not confirm a trend change.
Key levels: Pivot 13.159; resistance near 13.404–13.555. Prior supports listed at 12.915 and 12.764 are above the current price (11.89), implying MNR has broken below those levels and may need to reclaim them to improve the setup.
Probabilistic pattern read: model suggests modest upside over 1 week/month (+2.47% / +5.95%), but near-term (next day) bias is slightly negative.
Volatility: 30D IV 57.48 vs historical vol 22.99 (IV is very elevated), implying the options market is pricing a sizable move (often around earnings/commodity sensitivity) and making options “expensive.”
Activity: Today’s option volume is low in absolute terms (30 contracts) and below recent averages (vs 5D/10D avg 100/94), so the sentiment read is less robust.
IV percentile 65.79: volatility is elevated relative to its own recent history, reinforcing that event risk is being priced in.
Technical Summary
Sell
12
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-16 after hours (event-driven catalyst; could re-rate shares if distribution/outlook surprises positively).
If oil/natural gas prices stabilize or rebound, cash flow and yield outlook could improve quickly given sector sensitivity.
Integration execution upside: successful integration of acquired assets could support production mix optimization and steadier distributions over time.
Options market call-leaning activity suggests some traders are positioned for a bounce.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and far below pivot (13.
keeps trend pressure firmly negative.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 272.562M, +6.66% YoY (top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income -35.654M (deteriorated materially YoY), EPS -0.28 (down sharply YoY) — indicates earnings pressure despite higher revenue.
Margins: Gross margin 36.1%, down 13.57% YoY — margin compression is a key negative trend heading into the next earnings cycle.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Wall Street tone has weakened.
KeyBanc (2026-01-15/16): downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight (no PT), citing weak oil prices, volatile gas, integration year, and uncertain yield outlook.
Stifel (2026-01-06): kept Buy but cut PT to $18 from $22 on lower commodity price assumptions and lower-end capex expectations.
Northland (2025-11-10): kept Outperform but trimmed PT to $20 from $21; noted Q3 looked like a miss due to one-time acquisition costs.
Pros (Street view): still some Buy/Outperform ratings and double-digit price targets imply upside if commodities cooperate and integration goes smoothly.
Wall Street analysts forecast MNR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MNR is 18.67 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MNR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MNR is 18.67 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 11.950
Low
18
Averages
18.67
High
20
Current: 11.950
Low
18
Averages
18.67
High
20
KeyBanc
Overweight -> Sector Weight
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Overweight -> Sector Weight
Reason
KeyBanc last night downgraded Mach Natural Resources to Sector Weight from Overweight without a price target. The firm enters 2026 with a more selective view of the oil and gas group citing weak oil prices and volatile natural gas prices. It downgrades Mach on its "uncertain" yield outlook. KeyBanc sees a year of integration for Mach, as it folds in oily Central Basin Platform assets and gassy San Juan Basin assets into the portfolio. Consensus earnings estimates have downside risk as the partnership reduces capex to stick to its 50% reinvestment rate mandate, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
KeyBanc
Overweight -> Sector Weight
downgrade
2026-01-15
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
2026-01-15
downgrade
Overweight -> Sector Weight
Reason
KeyBanc downgraded Mach Natural Resources to Sector Weight from Overweight.
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