Should I Buy MNKD? MNKD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy MannKind Corp (MNKD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

5.780

1 Day change

4.90%

52 Week Range

6.510

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: options-implied volatility is extremely elevated (event-risk pricing) and hedge funds are aggressively selling.
Trend is constructively bullish on moving averages, but momentum is not strong (MACD positive but contracting) and price is sitting just below the pivot—risk of chop/pullback toward support.
Wall Street is broadly positive with sizable upside targets, but near-term catalysts (earnings + regulatory milestones) add binary risk; better odds after volatility normalizes.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting a medium-term uptrend is still intact despite today’s pullback (-2.25%).
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0222) but contracting, implying upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI_6 at 45.789 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal.
Levels: Pivot 5.815 (price 5.685 is below pivot = slight bearish near-term bias). Support S1 5.49 then S2 5.29; Resistance R1 6.14 then R2 6.34.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/Positioning: Very low put/call ratios (OI 0.23; volume 0.04) indicate strong bullish/speculative call skew.
Volatility: 30D IV ~218% vs historical vol ~52% (IV percentile ~88%) = options are pricing very large moves (event-driven uncertainty is high).
Activity: Today’s volume (1041) is far above 30-day average (~47x), reinforcing that the market is actively positioning around catalysts.
Takeaway: Options flow looks bullish, but the extreme IV makes outright buying shares a lower-quality immediate entry (market expects turbulence).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market) can re-rate the stock if revenue growth and guidance surprise.
- Regulatory/label expansion tailwinds cited by analysts (Afrezza label/dose-conversion update; pediatric application with a May 29 action date mentioned by H.C. Wainwright).
- Sell-side remains constructive: multiple Buy/Outperform ratings with $9–$11 targets imply meaningful upside from ~$5.69.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Hedge fund positioning: hedge funds are selling, with selling amount up ~337.78% last quarter—an important near-term supply/pressure signal.
- Event-risk pricing is extreme (IV ~218%): indicates elevated chance of sharp downside as well as upside around catalysts.
- Pipeline setback overhang: Oppenheimer cut PT after discontinuation of a Phase 3 program (removal from valuation), which can weigh on sentiment.
- News items provided are largely sector-themed and not clearly MNKD-specific, limiting near-term positive read-through.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $82.13M, +17.20% YoY (clear top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income $7.985M, -30.87% YoY; EPS $0.03, -25% YoY (earnings power softened despite revenue growth).
Margins: Gross margin 79.42%, +6.30% YoY (strong improvement in product economics).
Read: Growth is solid and margins improved, but bottom-line contraction makes the upcoming earnings/guidance particularly important.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Analysts are generally positive (Buy/Outperform), but there was at least one meaningful valuation reset (Oppenheimer PT cut $15→$10 after pipeline change).
Recent calls:
- 2026-01-08 H.C. Wainwright: Reiterated Buy, PT $11; highlights multiple 2026 tailwinds and FDA-related milestones.
- 2025-11-24 Truist: Initiated Buy, PT $9; emphasizes execution and multiple product drivers.
- 2025-11-11 Oppenheimer: Kept Outperform but cut PT to $10 after program discontinuation.
Wall Street pros: Visible commercial execution, multiple product/label tailwinds, sizable upside to targets.
Wall Street cons: Pipeline de-risking/removals can compress valuation; near-term outcomes are catalyst-dependent.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MNKD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MNKD is 9.25 USD with a low forecast of 7.5 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 5.510

Low

7.5

Averages

9.25

High

Current: 5.510

Low

7.5

Averages

9.25

High

H.C. Wainwright

Buy

maintain

$11

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Price Target

$11

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

maintain

Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright reiterates a Buy rating on MannKind with an $11 price target after the company provided a 2026 business update. The firm is positive on MannKind's outlook over the next two years, saying "very little value is ascribed to the multiple tailwinds that could be validated in 2026." The FDA decision on Afrezz's label update concerning dose conversion for mealtime insulin switching is on January 23, and a separate application for pediatric use in type 1/2 diabetes has a May 29 action date, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Truist

initiated

2025-11-24

Reason

Truist

Price Target

2025-11-24

initiated

Reason

Truist initiated coverage of MannKind with a Buy rating and $9 price target. MannKind continues to execute with their technology, with both Afrezza and Tyvaso DPI, and the recent acquisition of scPharmaceuticals adds another topline driver, Furoscix, for fluid overload, the analyst tells investors in a research note. MannKind's orphan lung pipeline continues to advance for longer-term diversification and growth for the company, Truist says.

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MNKD Should I Buy

MNKD Should I Buy

Should You Buy MannKind Corp (MNKD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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