Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the primary trend is still bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and price is sitting just above near-term support (~160.5).
Earnings are tomorrow pre-market (2026-02-06), and options are pricing elevated uncertainty (IV percentile ~94), which increases the odds of an unfavorable gap against a new position.
Positives (record January volumes) are real, but the stock is still trading heavy and Wall Street price targets have been drifting lower overall, suggesting upside may be capped until results/guide confirm acceleration.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), implying rallies are more likely to be sold until the trend reverses.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-1.032) but contracting, which can indicate downside momentum is weakening (potential for a short-term bounce, not a confirmed trend reversal).
RSI: RSI(6) ~29.35 is effectively oversold/near-oversold, supporting a possible reflex bounce, but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Levels: Pivot 166.29 is the first reclaim level; support S1 160.52 then S2 156.96. Resistance R1 172.06 then R2 175.62.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern stats suggest ~60% chance of a small next-day dip (-0.84%), but modest upside bias over 1 week (+0.96%) and 1 month (+3.87%)—supporting “wait for confirmation” rather than chasing an immediate entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment split: OI put/call at 0.52 leans bullish positioning overall, while today’s volume put/call at 1.62 suggests near-term hedging/defensive trading into the event.
Volatility: 30D IV ~46.38 vs historical vol ~22.67 indicates options are pricing a large move (event-driven, consistent with earnings tomorrow).
IV percentile ~94 implies options are expensive versus the last year; the market is expecting a meaningful post-earnings swing.
Activity: Today’s options volume (68) is low in absolute terms but shows elevated vs typical baseline in the dataset (today vs 30D avg listed as 35.05), pointing to increased attention into earnings.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
1
Positive Catalysts
January 2026 record credit trading volume: $18.6B, +28% YoY.
Takeaway: fundamentals were steady-to-soft in Q3; the bullish case depends on volume-led re-acceleration (as hinted by January metrics) translating into better earnings/guide.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have been cut across multiple firms (UBS, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Argus, BofA), indicating a broadly cautious recalibration even when ratings are maintained.
Current Street stance is mixed:
Bulls: UBS and Argus maintain Buy; William Blair Outperform highlights long-term revenue growth targets (8–9%/yr) and buyback accretion.
Neutral camp: Barclays and Morgan Stanley at Equal Weight; Keefe Bruyette Market Perform.
Bear: BofA Underperform with a low target ($167).
Pros (Wall St view): structural shift to electronic fixed-income trading, strong recent volume metrics, and buybacks.
Cons (Wall St view): potentially slower growth profile, market share headwinds in a benign credit environment, and monetization/fee pressure.
Wall Street analysts forecast MKTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MKTX is 194.43 USD with a low forecast of 167 USD and a high forecast of 225 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MKTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MKTX is 194.43 USD with a low forecast of 167 USD and a high forecast of 225 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 162.830
Low
167
Averages
194.43
High
225
Current: 162.830
Low
167
Averages
194.43
High
225
UBS
Buy
to
Buy
downgrade
$240 -> $225
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$240 -> $225
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
downgrade
Buy
to
Buy
Reason
UBS lowered the firm's price target on MarketAxess to $225 from $240 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
Barclays
Benjamin Budish
Equal Weight
downgrade
$188 -> $182
2026-01-08
Reason
Barclays
Benjamin Budish
Price Target
$188 -> $182
2026-01-08
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish lowered the firm's price target on MarketAxess to $182 from $188 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the brokers, asset managers and exchanges group ahead of the Q4 reports. Total volumes across equities, options, and futures "rose nicely" quarter-over-quarter and volatility picked up sequentially, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MKTX
