Should I Buy MKL? MKL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Markel Group Inc (MKL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

2102.150

1 Day change

0.34%

52 Week Range

2207.590

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is extended (RSI_6 ~81.6) and trading close to near-term resistance (R1 ~2142.7), making the immediate risk/reward unfavorable after a sharp post-results move.
Fundamentals/news are clearly positive (strong Q4 profit, revenue up), but short-term positioning signals are mixed and insiders are aggressively selling (selling amount up ~244% MoM).
If you already own it, the trend is still constructive (positive/expanding MACD), so holding makes more sense than chasing a fresh buy at today’s stretched level.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bullish momentum intact; MACD histogram (5.673) is above zero and expanding, consistent with an ongoing upswing.
Overbought: RSI_6 at 81.602 signals an overbought/overextended condition—often followed by consolidation or a pullback.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the move is maturing; upside may be slower near resistance.
Levels to watch: Pivot 2069.3 (key line in the sand). Resistance R1 2142.7 then R2 2188.1. Support S1 1995.9 then S2 1950.5.
Short-term pattern odds (provided): ~60% chance of a small next-day gain (+0.32%) and next-week gain (+2.54%), but next-month expectation is negative (-1.77%), reinforcing “don’t chase” at overbought levels.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio at 0.26 is bullish (more call open interest than puts), suggesting longer-horizon optimism.
Flow (Volume today): Put/Call volume ratio at 1.33 is short-term cautious (more puts traded than calls), consistent with hedging after a big move.
Volatility: 30D IV 25.53 vs historical vol 10.46 and IV percentile 87.25 => options are expensive; market expects larger-than-usual moves (often seen around/after earnings).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Growth: Operating revenues for 2025 reported at $15.51B (+5% YoY), indicating steady top-line expansion.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insider activity: Insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~244.44% over the last month—often a near-term sentiment headwind.
- Overbought technical setup: RSI > 80 increases odds of a pullback/consolidation, especially after a sharp earnings-driven pop.
- Options volatility pricing: Elevated IV (high percentile) implies the market is pricing bigger swings; near-term drawdowns are more likely than in a calm regime.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue $3.939B (+6.25% YoY) shows continued top-line growth, but profitability softened with Net Income $746.7M (-13.42% YoY) and EPS 59.25 (-10.57% YoY).
More recent update (2025/Q4 news): Reported Q4 profit of $576.8M and GAAP EPS of $48.75, plus full-year operating revenues of $15.51B (+5% YoY) and net investment income of $1.08B—overall a positive profitability/investment-income narrative, despite earlier-quarter EPS pressure.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating changes or price target revisions were provided in the dataset, so a true trend read isn’t available here.
Wall Street-style pros (inferred from results): clear EPS beat, steady revenue growth, and strong investment income support a constructive fundamental case.
Wall Street-style cons (inferred from tape/behavioral data): aggressive insider selling and an overbought technical setup weaken the case for initiating a new position immediately at today’s price.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MKL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MKL is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 2095.030

Low

Averages

High

Current: 2095.030

Low

Averages

High

Truist

Mark Hughes

Hold

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Truist

Mark Hughes

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Hold

Reason

Truist analyst Mark Hughes raised the firm's price target on Markel to $2,100 from $2,000 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The company appears to be executing well based on its sharpened focus within Markel Insurance along with tailwinds in the Financial operation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Argus

Hold

Buy

upgrade

2025-05-30

Reason

Argus

Price Target

2025-05-30

upgrade

Hold

Buy

Reason

Argus upgraded Markel to Buy from Hold.

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MKL Should I Buy

MKL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Markel Group Inc (MKL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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