Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: no proprietary buy signals, weakening fundamentals, and insider selling outweigh the modest technical/positioning positives.
Near-term setup is more “wait for confirmation” than “buy now”: price is hovering around the pivot (~25.36) with nearby resistance at ~26.25; upside exists but isn’t validated by strong momentum.
Price/market context: MGPI is down -2.46% today (SP500 -0.72%), indicating stock-specific weakness.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.122) but “positively contracting,” suggesting bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI (6): ~59.9 (neutral-to-slightly-strong), not an oversold bounce setup.
Moving averages: converging MAs indicate consolidation/indecision rather than a clean trend.
Levels to watch:
Pivot: 25.359 (current ~25.8 slightly above)
Resistance: R1 26.245, R2 26.792 (needs a break/hold above R1 to look like a real reversal)
Support: S1 24.472, S2 23.925 (a slip below pivot increases odds of testing S1)
Pattern-based odds provided: ~50% chance of +3.71% next day and +2.92% next week, but flat-to-negative over a month (-0.44%), aligning with “short bounce possible, trend not proven.”
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio 0.42 (call-heavy), typically a more bullish/less hedged stance.
Flow (Volume): Put/Call volume ratio 1.0 today (balanced), but total volume is very low (12 contracts), so sentiment signal is weak.
Volatility: IV30 ~39.0 vs historical vol ~26.9 (options priced rich vs realized), while IV rank ~12.9 / IV percentile ~8.4 suggests IV is low relative to its own recent history.
IV trend: Current IV is below 5D/10D IV averages (42.3 / 45.2), implying vol has been compressing into earnings (2026-02-25), which can precede a volatility expansion later.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
with room to retest 26.25–26.79 if buyers step in.
Takeaway: growth trend is clearly negative (sales, earnings, and margins all down), which reduces the probability that a quick “buy now” works without a strong technical trigger or a clear catalyst.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: mixed ratings with price targets generally coming down into 2026.
2026-01-22: Benchmark initiated Buy, PT $35 (expects branded spirits strength + ingredient improvement to help longer-term)
2026-01-05: Wells Fargo Overweight, PT cut $33 → $29 (still constructive, but less upside assumed)
Wall St pros: believes management is navigating macro challenges; potential for improvement in Ingredients and better offsetting dynamics in 2026+.
Wall St cons: acknowledges earnings erosion and sector headwinds; target cuts imply reduced conviction in near-term upside.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast MGPI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGPI is 34.75 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MGPI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGPI is 34.75 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 25.860
Low
24
Averages
34.75
High
45
Current: 25.860
Low
24
Averages
34.75
High
45
Benchmark
Buy
initiated
$35
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
Reason
Benchmark
Price Target
$35
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
initiated
Buy
Reason
As previously reported, Benchmark initiated coverage of MGP Ingredients with a Buy rating and $35 price target. MGP has seen earnings erosion over the past 18 months amid "a punishing time for the spirits sector and a reorientation of its legacy Ingredients business," the analyst tells investors. However, the firm believes the company has taken a thoughtful approach to managing macro challenges and it expects the strength of its Branded Spirits portfolio and improvement in its Ingredient business can offset some of the Distilling segment headwinds in 2026 and lead to a possible return of revenue growth in 2027.
Benchmark
NULL -> Buy
initiated
$35
2026-01-22
Reason
Benchmark
Price Target
$35
2026-01-22
initiated
NULL -> Buy
Reason
Benchmark initiated coverage of MGP Ingredients with a Buy rating and $35 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MGPI
