Should I Buy MGM? MGM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy MGM Resorts International (MGM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

37.490

1 Day change

3.34%

52 Week Range

41.320

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: options flow is bearish/defensive into near-term catalysts and the stock is breaking down on the day.
Risk/reward is skewed negative near-term (pattern stats point to likely weakness over 1W/1M) despite a mildly improving momentum read (MACD).
Best stance now: HOLD/avoid new entry until after the upcoming earnings/event window clears and price reclaims resistance (~37.9) with improving sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Down -4.52% today to 35.31, sitting right on the pivot (35.162) — this is a “decision zone,” but today’s selloff gives bears control short-term.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.217 and expanding -> mild bullish momentum building, but it’s being challenged by the current sell pressure.
RSI (6): 56.07 (neutral) -> no oversold “forced buy” setup.
Moving Averages: Converging -> consolidation/transition phase; direction likely decided by the next catalyst.
Levels: Support S1 32.446 (next key downside level); Resistance R1 37.878 (needs reclaim to turn the setup more convincingly bullish).
Probabilistic pattern read: ~60% chance of +1.43% next day, but -2.49% next week and -4.24% next month -> near-term bounce possible, medium-term drift lower is the higher-probability path.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put open interest exceeds calls (P/C OI 1.2) and put volume is much heavier than calls (P/C vol 2.1) -> bearish to defensive sentiment.
Event premium: IV 30d 46.52 vs historical vol 36.64 and IV percentile 84.46 -> options are pricing elevated uncertainty.
Flow intensity: Today’s option volume 20,445 is ~333% of 30D average -> unusual activity consistent with hedging/speculation into a catalyst.
Takeaway: Options market is not confirming a clean bullish entry; it’s signaling caution near-term.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- BetMGM 2025 results: ~33% net revenue growth to ~$2.796B and improved profitability (Adj. EBITDA ~$220M) -> supports the long-term digital growth narrative.
- Hedge funds: Reported buying increased ~161.9% over the last quarter -> supportive institutional demand.
- Potential catalysts highlighted by bulls: possible BetMGM value unlock, share repurchases, and longer-dated Japan integrated resort optionality (per bullish coverage).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term event risk: earnings timing has been in focus (rescheduled/coming up), and the options market is pricing elevated uncertainty.
- Core business concerns: multiple firms cite weaker Las Vegas fundamentals and tougher Macau conditions as key headwinds.
- Bearish options skew: heavy put volume/interest suggests traders are hedging for downside.
- Current tape: sharp down day (-4.52%) while broader market is also weak (S&P 500 -0.78%) -> risk-off pressure.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $4.250B, +1.90% YoY -> modest top-line growth.
Profitability: Net income -$285.6M (down -254.93% YoY) and EPS -1.05 (down -272.13% YoY) -> meaningful deterioration in earnings.
Margins: Gross margin 37.29%, down -4.85% YoY -> margin compression trend is a negative setup into the next report.
Bottom line: growth is not currently translating into earnings power, which limits how attractive the stock is “right now.”

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: ratings have skewed more cautious with multiple downgrades and reduced price targets (Citi to Neutral with PT 35; Barclays to Equal Weight PT 38; Morgan Stanley to Underweight PT 33; Goldman maintains Sell PT 33).
Offsetting bullish view: Texas Capital initiated Buy with a notably higher PT of $56; BofA is Neutral with PT 40.
Wall Street pros: BetMGM momentum/value unlock potential, buybacks, and improving 2026 sentiment backdrop (bull case).
Wall Street cons: Las Vegas softness, Macau “tougher sledding,” and mixed-to-negative earnings/margin trajectory (bear case).
Influential trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders show no significant trend recently.

14 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MGM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGM is 40.31 USD with a low forecast of 29 USD and a high forecast of 56 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

7 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 36.280

Low

Averages

40.31

High

Current: 36.280

Low

Averages

40.31

High

JPMorgan

Daniel Politzer

Neutral

maintain

$39 -> $41

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

JPMorgan

Daniel Politzer

Price Target

$39 -> $41

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan analyst Daniel Politzer raised the firm's price target on MGM Resorts to $41 from $39 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q4 report.

Stifel

Steven Wieczynski

Buy

maintain

$45 -> $50

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Stifel

Steven Wieczynski

Price Target

$45 -> $50

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski raised the firm's price target on MGM Resorts to $50 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While the firm doesn't expect Las Vegas strip growth until the second half of 2026, it does believe it's "very possible" for the company to grow EBITDA in the second half and believes consensus estimates are "in a very realistic range," the analyst tells investors.

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MGM Should I Buy

MGM Should I Buy

Should You Buy MGM Resorts International (MGM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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