Should I Buy MFIN? MFIN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.340

1 Day change

0.98%

52 Week Range

10.980

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: the setup is mixed (bullish longer-term trend, but weakening momentum and unfavorable short-horizon pattern odds).
Price is sitting near the pivot/support zone (~~10.17), so downside risk to S1 (~~9.91) is meaningful if support fails.
No Intellectia proprietary “strong buy” triggers today (no AI Stock Picker, no SwingMax), so there’s no priority signal to override the mixed backdrop.
With earnings scheduled for 2026-02-12 (after hours), the stock is in a catalyst window; without a clear edge today, the risk/reward is not compelling for an impatient entry.

Technical Analysis

Trend/MAs: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating the broader trend is still up.
Momentum (MACD): MACD histogram is positive (0.0299) but “positively contracting,” suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI_6 at 49.35 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal and no strong bullish momentum.
Levels to watch: Pivot 10.171 is the key line. Resistance at R1 10.435 then R2 10.598; supports at S1 9.908 then S2 9.745.
Probabilistic pattern read: Similar-pattern stats imply weak near-term skew (next week/month probabilities point to potential declines), which reduces confidence in buying immediately.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Very low put/call OI ratio (0.14) suggests call-heavy positioning / bullish tilt.
Flow today: Put volume is 0 vs call volume 12 (put/call volume ratio 0.0), but overall volume is very light—sentiment signal is directionally bullish but not very “strong” due to thin trading.
Volatility: 30D IV is elevated (~54.4) with IV percentile ~73.3, implying options are relatively expensive; market is pricing meaningful event risk.
Activity context: Today’s option volume is ~37.5% of the 30-day average (still small in absolute terms), and today’s OI vs average is ~96%, indicating no unusual build that screams “new conviction.”

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Operational momentum: Q4 revenue cited at $67.5M with strong lending performance; partnership-driven originations increased to $258.3M.
- Profitability/quality metric improvement: Net interest margin improved to 8.51%, a positive read on asset-liability management.
- Near-term catalyst: Earnings on 2026-02-12 after hours could re-rate the stock if credit costs stabilize and NIM holds.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Credit risk rising: Provision for credit losses increased to $26.3M, which can pressure future earnings if credit performance weakens.
- Near-term statistical skew: Similar-candlestick pattern analysis suggests elevated odds of weakness over the next week/month.
- Event risk: Elevated implied volatility into earnings indicates the market expects a sizable move; without a clear edge, buying now is less attractive.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Growth: Revenue increased to 155,798,000 (+233.14% YoY) and net income increased to 17,066,000 (+68.27% YoY), indicating strong reported growth.
Mixed quality flag: EPS shown as 0 (-100% YoY) conflicts with positive net income—this looks like a data/reporting inconsistency or a share/EPS item that needs reconciliation; it reduces confidence in making an aggressive buy decision purely on the snapshot.
Credit cost trend: Provisioning rising (per news) is the key financial headwind to monitor alongside NIM and originations.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a concrete “Street trend” cannot be confirmed from this dataset.
Wall Street-style pros (based on provided fundamentals/news): improving NIM, growing originations via partnerships, strong YoY revenue/net income growth.
Wall Street-style cons (based on provided fundamentals/news): higher provisioning/credit-loss caution and unclear EPS picture in the snapshot, which can cap near-term enthusiasm.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MFIN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MFIN is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy