Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is below the pivot and momentum is still mildly bearish.
Options positioning leans bullish (more calls than puts), but today’s volume is extremely light, so sentiment is not strongly confirmed.
Fundamentals in the latest quarter (2025/Q3) show modest YoY declines in revenue, earnings, and EPS—no clear growth tailwind.
Upcoming earnings (2026-02-18 pre-market) is the nearest catalyst; without a bullish technical setup, buying ahead of it is not compelling.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0394) and only contracting slightly, suggesting downside momentum is easing but not reversed.
RSI: RSI(6)=44.28 (neutral-to-soft), consistent with a weak/indecisive tape rather than a strong bounce setup.
Moving averages: Converging MAs indicate consolidation; no clear uptrend confirmation.
Levels: Price 9.705 is below Pivot 9.854 (bearish bias).
Support: S1 9.604 then S2 9.45 (a break below 9.60 increases downside risk).
Resistance: R1 10.105 then R2 10.259 (would need to reclaim ~9.85–10.10 to look like a cleaner long).
Pattern-based projection: Similar candlestick-pattern cohort implies upside probabilities, but given current momentum/levels, treat as secondary vs. indicators.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: OI put/call ratio 0.75 implies call open interest exceeds puts (mildly bullish positioning).
Flow today: Volume put/call ratio 0.02 (calls dominated), but total volume is tiny (44 contracts: 43 calls vs 1 put), so it’s not a strong conviction signal.
Volatility: IV30 ~22.03 vs HV ~24.87; IV percentile ~17.93 / IV rank ~11.65 suggests options are relatively cheap vs recent history (less fear priced in).
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Analyst stance remains constructive: UBS keeps Buy with a $10.25 target (implies upside from 9.705).
Options market positioning skewed toward calls (OI and volume).
Earnings on 2026-02-18 (pre-market) can act as a volatility/catalyst event.
Dividend history/communications: company highlights long dividend distribution track record (income-oriented investor appeal).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
shows YoY declines in revenue, net income, and EPS—weakening growth profile.
Overall read: mild deterioration vs last year; not showing an accelerating growth trend going into the next earnings date.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Latest update (2025-11-18): UBS (Doug Harter) maintained a Buy rating; price target trimmed to $10.25 from $10.50.
Trend takeaway: Rating stayed positive, but the target cut signals slightly reduced conviction/expectations.
Wall Street “pros” view (from provided data): upside to ~$10.25 and income/dividend profile can support the stock.
Wall Street “cons” view (from provided data): expectations being trimmed plus soft YoY financial trend suggests limited near-term catalyst strength.
Wall Street analysts forecast MFA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MFA is 10.08 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 10.25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MFA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MFA is 10.08 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 10.25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 9.670
Low
10
Averages
10.08
High
10.25
Current: 9.670
Low
10
Averages
10.08
High
10.25
UBS
Doug Harter
Buy
downgrade
AI Analysis
2025-11-18
Reason
UBS
Doug Harter
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-11-18
downgrade
Buy
Reason
UBS analyst Doug Harter lowered the firm's price target on MFA Financial to $10.25 from $10.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
UBS
Doug Harter
Buy
maintain
$10
2025-09-03
Reason
UBS
Doug Harter
Price Target
$10
2025-09-03
maintain
Buy
Reason
UBS analyst Doug Harter raised the firm's price target on MFA Financial to $10.50 from $10 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MFA
