Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is breaking below near-term support with bearish momentum (MACD worsening), increasing odds of a quick further drop.
While news flow is positive (sales growth, non-dilutive credit line, FDA feedback), the tape is still risk-off today and the 1-month pattern stats skew negative (-5.88%).
Best near-term risk/reward improves closer to the next support zone (~15.76) or after a reclaim of 16.52–17.75; at the current 16.18 the setup is not attractive for immediate entry.
Trend/momentum: Bearish near-term; MACD histogram -0.221 and negatively expanding indicates downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI (6): 24.145 suggests oversold/washed-out conditions, which can spark bounces, but oversold alone is not a reversal signal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggests indecision/transition; not a clean uptrend.
Key levels: Current 16.18 is below S1 (16.519), which is bearish (support break). Next support S2 ~15.759. Pivot resistance is 17.749; reclaiming this area would improve the technical picture.
Short-horizon probability model (similar patterns): modestly positive next day/week (+0.77% / +1.89%) but negative over next month (-5.88%), aligning with fragile trend.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Extremely call-skewed (OI put/call 0.09; volume put/call 0.1) implies bullish/speculative positioning rather than hedging.
Volatility: IV 30d 121.54 vs historical vol 57.12 = options are pricing very large moves; IV percentile 80.48 (elevated) suggests options are expensive.
Activity: Today’s options volume 1,876 is below the 30-day average (today vs avg ~76%), so bullish skew is present but not backed by a surge in fresh volume.
Takeaway: Sentiment is bullish, but elevated IV indicates high event-risk pricing and less favorable entry for new option buyers.
Financing: $125M non-dilutive credit line improves liquidity flexibility without immediate equity dilution.
Clinical execution: 84% of first 25 patients completed the 28-day regimen—supports real-world adoption narrative.
Regulatory catalyst potential: Encouraging FDA feedback on a potential BLA pathway for rexlemestrocel-L in chronic low back pain.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
quickly.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter financials were not provided in the dataset (financial snapshot error), so a full margin/cash-burn assessment can’t be validated here.
What is available: Q2 FY2025 product sales for Ryoncil® were $35M (+60% QoQ), a strong growth signal for top-line traction.
Funding note: $125M credit line is a balance-sheet positive near-term, though it introduces interest expense (8%).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change: Jefferies upgraded Mesoblast to Buy from Hold (2025-11-25) and raised its price target to A$3.30 from A$3.00.
Wall Street pro view (pros): Upgrade tied to continued Ryoncil rollout and expectations for higher patient completions in FY26.
Wall Street con view (cons): Limited coverage shown here (single-firm update in provided data) and the price target currency/reference may not map cleanly to the current trading price shown, reducing usability for timing.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders shown as neutral (no notable recent trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast MESO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MESO is 35 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MESO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MESO is 35 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 16.080
Low
35
Averages
35
High
35
Current: 16.080
Low
35
Averages
35
High
35
Jefferies
Hold
to
Buy
upgrade
$3
AI Analysis
2025-11-25
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$3
AI Analysis
2025-11-25
upgrade
Hold
to
Buy
Reason
Jefferies upgraded Mesoblast to Buy from Hold with a price target of A$3.30, up from A$3.
Jefferies
David Stanton
Hold
to
Buy
upgrade
$3
2025-11-25
Reason
Jefferies
David Stanton
Price Target
$3
2025-11-25
upgrade
Hold
to
Buy
Reason
As previously reported, Jefferies analyst David Stanton upgraded Mesoblast to Buy from Hold with a price target of A$3.30, up from A$3. Ryoncil continues to be rolled out and the firm forecasts 78 patients will complete therapy in FY26, up from 63, while updating its estimates for fiscal Q2 results and FY26 forecasts.
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