Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: today’s sharp drop (-7.05%) plus weakening momentum (negative/expanding MACD) suggests near-term downside risk remains.
Longer-term structure is still constructive (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and Street sentiment is mostly bullish, but the current tape looks like a falling move rather than a clean dip-buy setup.
Best stance right now is HOLD / avoid fresh entry until price stabilizes back above the pivot (~48.95) or holds support convincingly around ~46.87–45.58.
Technical Analysis
Trend/MAs: Bullish moving average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) implies the bigger-picture trend has been up, but today’s selloff is damaging the near-term setup.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.141 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum strengthening short term.
RSI: RSI_6 ~46.5 (neutral) indicates it’s not deeply oversold yet—room for further downside before a classic “oversold bounce” signal.
Key levels: Pivot 48.95 (now below it = bearish near-term), Support S1 46.87 then S2 45.58; Resistance R1 51.03.
Positioning/Sentiment: Very low put/call ratios (OI PCR 0.2; Volume PCR 0.05) = options flow is strongly call-skewed (bullish sentiment).
Volatility: IV_30d 51.41 vs historical vol 36.67; IV percentile 81.2 = options are relatively expensive, reflecting elevated event/price-move expectations.
Activity: Today’s option volume 397 is ~110% of the 30-day average (slightly elevated), suggesting increased trader attention around the selloff.
Takeaway: Sentiment in options is bullish, but elevated IV also signals the market is pricing larger swings (not a calm dip-buy environment).
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Gross margin improved meaningfully in the latest reported quarter (YoY), suggesting operational leverage potential if pricing/volumes cooperate.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
showed a net loss and negative EPS—fundamentals have not fully stabilized yet.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 927.4M, down -0.79% YoY (slight contraction).
Profitability: Net income -7.1M (down -122.76% YoY) and EPS -0.09 (down -125.71% YoY) = earnings trend deteriorated versus last year.
Margin: Gross margin 7.38%, up +67.35% YoY = a notable improvement, but not yet translating into bottom-line profitability in that quarter.
Overall: mixed—better gross margin, but weak earnings and slight revenue decline.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes are net positive: RBC raised PT to $55 (from $50) and reiterated Outperform (2026-02-02); CIBC raised PT to $47 (from $44) and kept Outperformer (2025-11-17).
Scotiabank maintained Outperform with a $48 PT (2026-01-05), citing geopolitics as near-term supportive for methanol/margins.
Wall Street pros (bull case): tighter supply, improving demand, integration/capital allocation confidence, potential for stronger pricing/margins.
Wall Street cons (bear case): results recently showed losses; the stock’s sharp selloff indicates the market is still sensitive to near-term earnings/cycle risk.
Wall Street analysts forecast MEOH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MEOH is 49.67 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 65 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MEOH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MEOH is 49.67 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 65 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 47.040
Low
38
Averages
49.67
High
65
Current: 47.040
Low
38
Averages
49.67
High
65
CIBC
Outperformer -> Neutral
downgrade
$46 -> $52
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
CIBC
Price Target
$46 -> $52
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Outperformer -> Neutral
Reason
CIBC last night downgraded Methanex to Neutral from Outperformer with a price target of $52, up from $46.
RBC Capital
Outperform
maintain
$50 -> $55
2026-02-02
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$50 -> $55
2026-02-02
maintain
Outperform
Reason
RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on Methanex to $55 from $50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Despite the modest revision, CMA - Chemical Markets Analytics - continues to forecast an upward price trend through 2028 driven by supply constraints and improving demand, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MEOH
