MELI Should I Buy
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["Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is in a confirmed bearish trend (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) with worsening downside momentum (MACD histogram negative and expanding).", "While the stock is short-term oversold (RSI_6 ~29.7) and could bounce off support near ~$2,027, the prevailing trend still favors sellers, so risk of buying into continued weakness is elevated.", "Options positioning is relatively supportive (heavy call volume vs puts), but it\u2019s paired with extremely elevated implied volatility, suggesting the market is pricing large moves rather than a clean bullish trend.", "Better setup would be after a technical reversal (reclaiming pivot ~$2,163 and stabilizing MACD/RSI) or after the upcoming earnings catalyst (Feb 23, after hours)."]
["Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicating a sustained downtrend.", "Momentum: MACD histogram at -15.609 (below 0) and negatively expanding \u2192 downside momentum is still strengthening.", "Overbought/oversold: RSI_6 at 29.679 indicates near-oversold conditions (bounce potential), but oversold can persist in downtrends.", "Key levels: Immediate support S1 ~$2,027 (price $2,062 is close). If it breaks, next support S2 ~$1,943. Resistance/pivot at ~$2,163; higher resistance R1 ~$2,300.", "Pattern-based odds (model): 70% chance of modest gains (+0.59% next day, +1.46% next week, +2.26% next month), but these are small relative to current volatility and trend direction."]
create a plausible technical rebound zone if support holds.", "Event catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23 after hours (potential re-rating catalyst if results/guide surprise positively)."]
["Technical deterioration: MACD is negative and worsening; moving averages confirm bearish trend\u2014this is the main reason it\u2019s not a clean buy today.", "Analyst caution short-term: Citi maintains Buy but opened a '90-day negative short-term' view citing competition and potential downward estimate revisions.", "Institutional selling: Aubrey Capital fully liquidated its MELI position; Triasima also reduced exposure (both indicate some professional risk-off behavior).", "Margin pressure: Latest reported gross margin down YoY, which can weigh on sentiment if the market expects ongoing investment-cycle compression."]
["Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.", "Revenue: $7.409B, +39.48% YoY (strong top-line growth).", "Profitability: Net income $421M, +6.05% YoY; EPS $8.30, +6.00% YoY (earnings growth positive but much slower than revenue).", "Margins: Gross margin 43.31%, -5.66% YoY (suggests higher costs/investment intensity and/or mix shift\u2014key trend to monitor)."]
["Recent trend: Multiple firms lowered price targets (Wedbush $2,800\u2192$2,700; UBS $3,000\u2192$2,900; Citi $2,700\u2192$2,500), signaling tempered expectations after recent weakness/competition concerns.", "Ratings mix: Still constructive overall (Wedbush Outperform; Citi Buy) but with notable near-term caution (Citi '90-day negative short-term').", "JPMorgan: Neutral, but commentary is incrementally positive on competition moderation from Shopee (a pro for MELI\u2019s competitive landscape).", "Wall Street pros: Strong structural e-commerce/fintech positioning in LatAm, scale advantages, and long runway for fintech/credit penetration.", "Wall Street cons: Competitive pressure, potential estimate cuts, and ongoing investment cycle that can compress margins/near-term profitability."]
