Should I Buy MEDP? MEDP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

542.040

1 Day change

0.14%

52 Week Range

628.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price action is weak (bearish momentum) and the stock is sitting near key support with downside room to the next level.
Options are pricing in elevated risk (very high IV) into earnings on 2026-02-09, making the near-term setup more event-driven than trend-friendly.
Business fundamentals remain strong (Q3’25 revenue/EPS growth), but the current tape + earnings catalyst do not offer a clean “buy now” edge.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -6.606 and worsening (negatively expanding) indicates bearish momentum is building rather than stabilizing.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~20 suggests oversold/washed-out conditions, which can trigger bounces, but it’s not a confirmed reversal signal by itself.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition phase, but with MACD deteriorating, the bias remains bearish until price reclaims key levels.
Levels: Current ~552 is below S1 (556.37) and above S2 (541.999). If S2 breaks, downside risk increases; upside resistance starts at Pivot 579.63 then R1 602.89.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern stats imply only modest upside skew (next day ~30% chance to +2.21%; next week +3.55%; next month +2.44%), not strong enough to override current bearish momentum.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow: Elevated open-interest put/call (1.87) suggests heavier put positioning/hedging overall, while today’s volume put/call (0.47) shows call-heavy flow intraday.
Volatility: 30D IV 63.6 vs historical vol 27.67 and IV percentile 94.82 indicates options are extremely expensive, consistent with a major near-term catalyst (earnings).
Takeaway: Options market is pricing a large move; sentiment is mixed (hedged/defensive positioning, but tactical call buying).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-09 after hours (Est. EPS 4.18). A beat/raise could spark a sharp rebound given oversold technicals.
- Strong recent growth profile: Q3’25 revenue +23.74% YoY and EPS +28.24% YoY supports the bull case.
- At/near support zone: Trading between S1 and S2 can produce technical bounces if selling pressure fades.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Bearish momentum is strengthening (MACD negative and expanding), raising the probability that support breaks before any sustainable rebound.
- Earnings risk is imminent and options imply elevated uncertainty (very high IV); the stock could gap down on any miss or cautious commentary.
- Profitability pressure: Q3’25 gross margin fell to 28.78% (down ~4.95% YoY), which can weigh on multiple/expectations.
- Broader risk tone: Market is down (S&P 500 -0.9%), which can amplify downside follow-through in weak charts.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 659.903M, +23.74% YoY (strong top-line momentum).
Net income: 111.135M, +15.25% YoY (growth, but slower than revenue).
EPS: 3.86, +28.24% YoY (strong per-share growth).
Margins: Gross margin 28.78%, down ~4.95% YoY (a key negative trend to monitor into the next report).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent changes are mixed and valuation-focused rather than uniformly bullish:
- 2026-01-09 Mizuho: Outperform; PT raised to 660 (from 655) — constructive, but notes utilization trends may be peaking.
- 2025-12-15 Barclays: Underweight; PT raised to 525 (from 485) — still bearish vs current price (~552).
- 2025-11-12 BMO: Initiated Market Perform; PT 600 — views valuation as full given a tepid biotech funding backdrop.
Wall Street pros: strong execution and growth profile; potential upside if utilization/biotech demand holds and earnings deliver.
Wall Street cons: “full” valuation / limited cushion, macro/biotech funding sensitivity, and margin compression risk.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MEDP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MEDP is 569.17 USD with a low forecast of 462 USD and a high forecast of 660 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

4 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 541.270

Low

462

Averages

569.17

High

660

Current: 541.270

Low

462

Averages

569.17

High

660

Mizuho

Outperform

maintain

$655 -> $660

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$655 -> $660

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Medpace to $660 from $655 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the healthcare facilities and managed care group as part of a Q4 preview. Mizuho's physician survey indicated healthcare utilization growth trends decelerated sequentially despite easier year-over-year comps, which could indicate trend is peaking, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Barclays

Luke Sergott

Underweight

maintain

$485 -> $525

2025-12-15

Reason

Barclays

Luke Sergott

Price Target

$485 -> $525

2025-12-15

maintain

Underweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Luke Sergott raised the firm's price target on Medpace to $525 from $485 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and price targets in the life sciences and diagnostics tools space as part of its 2026 outlook. The last of the estimate cuts, recovering end markets and tools being the "most under-owned space in healthcare" creates a "great setup" for outperformance of the tools group in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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MEDP Should I Buy

MEDP Should I Buy

Should You Buy Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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