Should I Buy MED? MED 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Medifast Inc (MED) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

11.360

1 Day change

4.89%

52 Week Range

16.660

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: trend and fundamentals are still deteriorating, with no proprietary “strong buy” trigger.
Price is below key pivot (11.492) and sitting near support (S1 ~11.033 / S2 ~10.75); this is more of a weak “knife-catch” zone than a confirmed reversal.
Options positioning is very call-heavy, but high IV into earnings suggests uncertainty rather than a clean bullish setup.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bearish: moving averages stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), consistent with a sustained downtrend.
Momentum weak: MACD histogram -0.0725 and negatively expanding (bearish momentum increasing).
RSI(6) ~35.35: near the lower end of “neutral/approaching oversold,” but not showing a confirmed reversal signal.
Levels: Pivot 11.492 is overhead resistance; near-term support S1 11.033 and S2 10.75. A break below ~10.75 would likely extend downside.
Pattern-based expectation is negative: ~50% chance of -0.67% next day, -1.07% next week, -4.29% next month.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Extremely call-skewed positioning: call OI 20,089 vs put OI 894 (OI put/call 0.04) and put/call volume 0.08 → sentiment/positioning leans bullish/speculative.
Volatility is elevated: 30D IV 59.36 vs historical vol 40.11; IV percentile 76.49 → options market pricing in large moves (often riskier to buy shares ahead of catalysts).
Activity elevated: today’s option volume 512 vs 30D avg (172.39%), indicating heightened attention into upcoming earnings.
Interpretation: bullish tilt from call dominance, but elevated IV into earnings often reflects event risk rather than confident directional conviction.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- RSI near oversold can produce sharp technical bounces.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Strong bearish technical structure (MA stack + expanding negative MACD) suggests rallies may fail until trend changes.
- Earnings catalyst risk is high: market is already pricing big moves (high IV); downside reaction risk remains meaningful if losses/revenue declines persist.
- No supportive flow signals: hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral; no notable recent news tailwinds.
- Pattern-probability data points to continued drift lower over the next week/month.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 89.41M, -36.21% YoY (sharp contraction).
Net income: -2.261M (down -300.27% YoY), indicating profitability deterioration.
EPS: -0.21 (down -310.00% YoY).
Gross margin: 69.52%, down -7.79% YoY → margins are compressing while revenue falls, a negative operating trend.
Overall: accelerating weakness (declining sales + losses) is not a supportive “buy now” fundamental setup.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided in the dataset, so recent Wall Street upgrades/downgrades and target revisions can’t be verified here.
Practical read from available data: pros would point to potential mean-reversion bounce near support and event-driven upside on earnings; cons are the persistent revenue decline, recent losses, and bearish trend that make sustained upside less likely without a clear turnaround.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MED stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MED is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 10.830

Low

Averages

High

Current: 10.830

Low

Averages

High

DA Davidson

Linda Bolton Weiser

Hold

Maintains

$17 → $17

AI Analysis

2025-02-19

Reason

DA Davidson

Linda Bolton Weiser

Price Target

$17 → $17

AI Analysis

2025-02-19

Maintains

Hold

Reason

MED Should I Buy

MED Should I Buy

Should You Buy Medifast Inc (MED) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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