Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is pressing into resistance while momentum looks stretched.
Upside appears limited near-term (analyst PT $20 vs. current ~$20.42), while options positioning is skewed bearish (heavy put open interest).
Better to wait for either a clean breakout above $20.75 or a pullback closer to support ($19.25) before considering entry.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram positive and expanding, indicating an ongoing uptrend.
Momentum: RSI(6) at ~73.4 suggests the stock is stretched/overbought in the short term (risk of pullback/chop).
Levels: Pivot 19.25 (key support). Resistance overhead at R2 ~20.75; price (20.42) is already above R1 (~20.18) and pushing toward R2.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern stats imply mild downside bias (-0.27% next day, -2.28% next week, -2.85% next month), which aligns with a near-resistance fade risk.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put open interest 423 vs call open interest 101 (OI put/call 4.19) signals defensive/bearish skew or heavy hedging.
Activity: Very light volume (only 4 calls traded; 0 puts), so sentiment comes more from open interest than fresh flow.
Volatility: 30D IV ~64.4 vs historical vol ~44.5 (IV elevated); IV percentile ~62 suggests options are not cheap, consistent with uncertainty into upcoming earnings.
Takeaway: Options market is not signaling an aggressive bullish bet at current levels; skew favors protection/caution.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
was +6.59% YoY.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases pullback risk.
implies bearish/defensive positioning.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $144.31M (+6.59% YoY) — top-line growth is positive.
Profitability: Net income -$2.675M (down -189.95% YoY) and EPS -$0.13 (down -192.86% YoY) — moved deeper into losses.
Overall: Growth exists, but deteriorating margins/profits weaken the quality of that growth and reduce confidence in paying up near resistance.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
2026-01-05: Northland downgraded MEC to Market Perform (from Outperform) with unchanged $20 price target.
Rationale summary: They like long-term fundamentals, but view shares as close to fully valued and note strong chart resistance.
Wall Street pro view: Long-term growth outlook remains attractive.
Wall Street con view: Valuation/technical resistance and near-term profitability pressure limit upside from current levels.
Wall Street analysts forecast MEC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MEC is 21 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MEC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MEC is 21 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 21.650
Low
19
Averages
21
High
24
Current: 21.650
Low
19
Averages
21
High
24
Northland
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$20
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
Reason
Northland
Price Target
$20
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Northland downgraded Mayville Engineering to Market Perform from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $20. While the firm likes the fundamentals of the company and its long-term growth outlook, it thinks shares are close to fully valued and notes that they are "knocking against a reasonably strong point of resistance from a chart perspective."
Craig-Hallum
NULL -> Buy
initiated
$24
2025-10-21
Reason
Craig-Hallum
Price Target
$24
2025-10-21
initiated
NULL -> Buy
Reason
Craig-Hallum initiated coverage of Mayville Engineering with a Buy rating and $24 price target.
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