Should I Buy MDU? MDU 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

20.340

1 Day change

0.89%

52 Week Range

21.490

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is breaking down post-earnings and sitting just above near-term support (~20.13).
Upside looks capped near term: the only recent analyst view is Hold with a $20 target, roughly in-line/slightly below the current ~$20.37.
Options show mixed-to-cautious sentiment (bearish volume put/call) and very elevated IV (IV percentile ~90), suggesting uncertainty persists even after earnings.
I would wait for either a reclaim above ~20.61 (pivot) / ~21.09 (R1) or a clean bounce off ~20.13–19.83 support before calling it a buy.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Moving averages are still bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but today’s -3.04% drop weakens the near-term tape.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.00385) and expanding lower, indicating bearish momentum building.
RSI: RSI(6) ~41.8 (neutral-to-weak), not oversold enough to confidently call a dip-buy.
Key levels: Pivot 20.61 (now overhead resistance). Support S1 20.13 (very close), then S2 19.83. Resistance R1 21.09 then R2 21.39.
Near-term read: Bias is defensive unless price stabilizes and reclaims 20.61+.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (OI): Put/Call OI ratio 0.15 is call-heavy (generally bullish longer positioning).
Flow (volume): Put/Call volume ratio 1.45 is bearish/hedge-heavy today, aligning with the post-earnings selloff.
Volatility: 30D IV ~44.07 vs historical vol ~17.18; IV percentile ~90.44 = options are pricing elevated uncertainty.
Activity: Today’s volume (142) is ~568% of 30D average, signaling event-driven interest and heightened sentiment.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- 2026 EPS guide of $0.93–$1.00 provides a forward framework that can stabilize expectations.
- Continued investment plan: $560M planned for major pipeline projects; $792M deployed in 2025 suggests ongoing regulated/infra buildout.
- Customer growth mentioned despite higher operating costs (supports longer-term regulated utility thesis).
- Historical context: MDU has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time over the past two years (though this quarter’s reaction matters more near term).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings sentiment: Q4 GAAP EPS reported at $0.37 and described as a miss in the news summary; the stock is reacting negatively (down ~3%).
- Revenue: Q4 revenue $534M showed a slight YoY decline.
- Segment pressure: Electric utility net income down in 2025 ($64.9M vs $74.8M in 2024).
- Trading tone: Options volume put/call > 1 indicates near-term defensive positioning.
- Share supply overhang risk: recent public offering (10.15M shares) can weigh on near-term price action.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue grew to 315,036,000 (+8.75% YoY), but profitability deteriorated sharply.
2025/Q3 net income fell to 18,311,000 (-71.66% YoY) and EPS fell to 0.09 (-71.88% YoY), indicating margin/expense or non-operating headwinds.
Gross margin improved slightly to 64.91 (+0.84% YoY), but it did not translate into earnings growth.
Latest earnings event (QDEC 2025, reported 2026-02-05 pre-market): EPS 0.37 (Est 0.37 per calendar) with mixed commentary elsewhere; market reaction is negative, implying guidance/quality of results may not have impressed.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst action: [2025-12-25] Freedom Capital initiated MDU at Hold with a $20 price target.
Rationale cited: predictable regulated utility/pipeline returns are a positive, but valuation plus “regulatory gaps” may pressure near-term results.
Wall Street-style pros: regulated, cost-recovery oriented businesses can support stability; multi-state footprint; ongoing capex pipeline.
Wall Street-style cons: limited near-term upside vs target, regulatory timing risk, and recent earnings/profitability softness.
Influential/politician trading check: no recent congress trading data available; insider/hedge fund trend noted as Neutral (no significant recent activity).

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MDU stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MDU is 21 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 22 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 20.160

Low

Averages

High

Current: 20.160

Low

Averages

High

Freedom Capital

Hold

initiated

$20

AI Analysis

2025-12-25

Reason

Freedom Capital

Price Target

$20

AI Analysis

2025-12-25

initiated

Hold

Reason

Freedom Capital initiated coverage of MDU Resources with a Hold rating and $20 price target. The firm says MDU operates regulated electric, natural gas, and pipeline businesses across eight U.S. states. This provides "predictable long-term cost recovery and stable returns," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Freedom cites the stock's valuation and "regulatory gaps" potentially hurting the company's financial results in the near-term for the Hold rating.

Jefferies

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Buy

maintain

$20 -> $22

2025-10-22

Reason

Jefferies

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Price Target

$20 -> $22

2025-10-22

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith raised the firm's price target on MDU Resources to $22 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees a mostly positive Q3 "super cycle" of updates with messages of "capex up & cost of capital down" from the utilities group, the analyst tells investors in a sector preview.

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MDU Should I Buy

MDU Should I Buy

Should You Buy MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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