Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the stock is short-term extended (RSI_6 74) and sitting just below a key resistance zone (60.32).
Options positioning is slightly bearish (put-leaning put/call ratios) and Congress activity shows only sells in the last 90 days—both argue against chasing today.
Fundamentals: Q4 revenue grew, but profitability and margins fell sharply YoY, and FY26 guidance is cautious—likely keeping a lid on near-term upside.
Upside exists versus most analyst targets ($63–$68 range), but the setup looks more like “wait for a pullback” than “buy now.”
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.197) and expanding → bullish momentum remains intact.
Overbought risk: RSI_6 at ~74 suggests the recent move is stretched; near-term pullback risk is elevated.
Moving averages: converging MAs imply the trend is not strongly established and could chop around.
Levels to watch: Pivot 58.84; Support S1 57.37 (then 56.46); Resistance R1 60.32 (then 61.23). With price ~59.43, upside is immediately capped by 60.32.
Short-horizon pattern stats provided: 50% chance of -2.2% next day; +1.13% next week; -11.61% next month → skew is unattractive for an immediate entry.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put open interest > call open interest (P/C OI 1.11) and put volume slightly > call volume (P/C volume 1.08) → mildly bearish/defensive positioning.
Volatility: IV (30d) ~20.6 vs historical vol ~23.5; IV percentile ~21 and IV rank ~25 → options are relatively inexpensive, suggesting the market isn’t pricing a major upside catalyst.
Activity: today volume 4,350, about 93% of avg; OI roughly in-line (103% of avg) → no unusual options-driven conviction spike.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Analyst target spread implies upside: many price targets ($63–$
sit above the current ~$59.
Increased brand investment cycle could support medium-term volume/brand health if it stabilizes North America.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
FY26 outlook/guidance is cautious and below consensus in multiple notes (organic growth roughly flat to +2%; EPS growth modest) → likely near-term pressure on the stock.
Profitability deterioration in the latest quarter (large YoY drops in net income/EPS and gross margin) raises concern that pricing power is not translating cleanly to earnings right now.
North America weakness and EU pricing negotiation/disruption risk cited in commentary.
Politician/influential activity: Congress had 4 trades in 90 days, all sales and zero buys → unfavorable signal.
Broader tape: S&P 500 down ~0.86% today, reducing appetite for defensive “chase” entries.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $10.496B, +9.29% YoY → top-line growth held up.
Net income: $665M, -61.89% YoY → major earnings contraction.
EPS: $0.51, -60.77% YoY → profitability headwind is pronounced.
Gross margin: 27.83, -27.22% YoY → margin pressure aligns with cocoa/input volatility and investment spending narrative.
Takeaway: growth is present on revenue, but quality of earnings/margins is the key near-term problem.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent direction (last updates clustered on 2026-02-04): targets were mixed—some raised (MS, TD Cowen, UBS, Wells Fargo, Piper) and some lowered (JPMorgan, Stifel); overall ratings skew positive (many Overweight/Buy, some Neutral/Hold).
What Wall Street likes: potential cocoa relief, Q4 better-than-feared, and a view that 2026 is transitional with improving growth/volumes later.
What Wall Street dislikes: FY26 guidance below consensus, near-term “noise” from cocoa volatility and pricing/volume pressure (notably North America/EU).
Net: pros are medium-term constructive, but the near-term setup is not compelling enough to justify buying immediately at ~59.4 without a better entry.
Wall Street analysts forecast MDLZ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MDLZ is 66.82 USD with a low forecast of 62 USD and a high forecast of 84 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MDLZ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MDLZ is 66.82 USD with a low forecast of 62 USD and a high forecast of 84 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 60.310
Low
62
Averages
66.82
High
84
Current: 60.310
Low
62
Averages
66.82
High
84
JPMorgan
Overweight
downgrade
$69 -> $67
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$69 -> $67
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Mondelez to $67 from $69 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says falling cocoa prices should bring relief to the company.
Morgan Stanley
Megan Alexander Clapp
Overweight
maintain
$65 -> $66
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Megan Alexander Clapp
Price Target
$65 -> $66
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Megan Alexander Clapp raised the firm's price target on Mondelez to $66 from $65 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Q4 was better than feared, but FY26 guidance came in below consensus amid near-term noise driven by cocoa price volatility, says the analyst, who trimmed the firm's FY26 estimates but leaves its FY27 EPS forecast unchanged.
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