Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the setup is near-term mixed (oversold/near support, but still below key pivot with bearish momentum not fully reversed).
A better “go” signal would be a reclaim of 487 (pivot) and especially a push through 502–512 resistance; alternatively a clean dip/hold near 471–462 support would improve reward/risk.
Price context: trading at 481.99, below the Pivot 487.09; immediate levels are Support S1 471.65 / S2 462.11 and Resistance R1 502.52 / R2 512.06.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.664 (bearish), but negatively contracting, suggesting downside momentum is weakening (potential for a stabilization/bounce, not yet a trend reversal).
RSI(6): 23.94 (functionally oversold), consistent with a short-term bounce setup, but oversold conditions can persist without a catalyst.
Moving averages: converging, which often precedes a bigger move; direction confirmation is still lacking.
Pattern-based odds (similar candlesticks): modest edge only (~+1.14% next day, ~flat next week, ~+1.3% next month)—not strong enough to justify an aggressive chase today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI = 0.55 with calls OI 7080 vs puts OI 3925 → positioning skew is bullish/call-heavy.
Volatility: 30D IV 59.79% vs HV 35.61% → options are pricing elevated moves; implies the market expects a catalyst-driven swing (earnings is the obvious one).
Activity: today volume vs 30D average 15.47x → unusually active tape, but direction is mixed (call-heavy OI, put-heavy day volume).
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
earnings on 2026-02-19 (pre-market)**; event can re-rate shares if commercial metrics surprise.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Insider signal: Insiders are selling, with selling amount up 577.34% over the last month (not supportive for an “impatient buy now” decision).
Trend still not confirmed: price is below pivot (487) and MACD remains below zero.
Options tape today is put-skewed on volume (Put/Call volume 1.65), implying traders are paying for protection/short-term downside bets.
No fresh news catalysts in the past week to justify immediate upside follow-through before earnings.
Profitability: Net income - $114.19M (loss), but improved +6.76% YoY; EPS -5.08, improved +3.25% YoY → still loss-making, but trending in the right direction.
Margins: Gross margin 93.69%, down 2.95% YoY but still extremely high (supports long-run operating leverage if opex scales).
Overall read: strong growth phase with improving losses, but not yet earnings-power proven; market focus likely remains on demand/trajectory and guidance.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets mostly moved up sharply into late 2025 and January 2026, then some moderation/mixed actions (Wolfe downgrade; BofA slight PT cut while staying Neutral).
BofA (2026-02-03)Neutral, PT cut to $570 (from $595).
Wolfe (2026-01-06) downgraded to Peer Perform (valuation viewed as stretched).
Wall Street “pros” view (bull case): durable IP runway, large MASH commercial opportunity, improving uptake and potential expansion.
Wall Street “cons” view (bear case): valuation concerns after large run-up, and sensitivity to expectations around peak sales/competitive dynamics.
Wall Street analysts forecast MDGL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MDGL is 636.22 USD with a low forecast of 527 USD and a high forecast of 900 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MDGL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MDGL is 636.22 USD with a low forecast of 527 USD and a high forecast of 900 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 463.420
Low
527
Averages
636.22
High
900
Current: 463.420
Low
527
Averages
636.22
High
900
BofA
Neutral
downgrade
$595 -> $570
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$595 -> $570
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Madrigal Pharmaceuticals to $570 from $595 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Given the level of pre-announcements, upcoming Q4 earnings "may not have the same impact they've had in prior years," the analyst tells investors in a preview for the firm's biopharma coverage.
Barclays
initiated
$964
2026-01-27
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$964
2026-01-27
initiated
Reason
Barclays initiated coverage of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals with an Overweight rating and $964 price target. Barclays initiated coverage of 12 biotech stocks and assumed coverage of 11 with a positive view of the industry. The analyst likes the setup for the group in 2026. Many biotech stocks remain undervalued, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects continued mergers and acquisitions, "strong" underlying fundamentals, and less of a focus on drug pricing to act as "significant tailwinds."
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