Buy now for a tactical rebound setup: MDB is deeply oversold (RSI_6 16) and trading just above key support (333), which often attracts dip-buying.
Wall Street tone is strongly positive with multiple recent price-target raises clustered around ~$490–$525, supporting near-term confidence.
Main risk to the immediate timing: momentum is still bearish (MACD histogram negative and expanding) and options flow is put-heavy, so the bounce may be choppy; still, the current location (near support + oversold) makes it a good “right now” entry for an impatient buyer.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish near-term momentum (MACD histogram -7.785 and negatively expanding) indicates the down-move is still active.
Overbought/Oversold: RSI_6 at 16.398 signals extreme oversold conditions—often a rebound zone.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the selloff may be maturing, but not yet confirming a trend reversal.
Key levels: Price 336.805 is just above S1 333.011 (important near-term support). Next supports: S2 307.665. Resistance/pivot overhead: Pivot 374.038, then R1 415.065.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern analysis implies a bullish bias ahead (60% chance; +1.52% next day, +5.4% next week, +11.93% next month), consistent with a mean-reversion bounce setup.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from options: Open interest put/call ~0.99 is neutral, but put volume dominance (1.45) is bearish/defensive (hedging or speculative downside).
Volatility regime: IV is extremely elevated (30D IV 83.75 vs HV 56.43; IV percentile 98.41 / IV rank 91.81), implying the market is pricing large moves (often around event risk or heightened uncertainty).
Activity: Today’s options volume is elevated (~141% vs 30D average), reinforcing that traders are actively positioning right now.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
increases probability of a snapback rally.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Downtrend momentum is still active (MACD negative and worsening), so the stock can retest/break support before any durable rebound.
Options tape shows put-heavy volume (volume put/call 1.45), suggesting traders are still leaning defensive/bearish short-term.
Elevated implied volatility indicates the market expects big swings; direction is uncertain.
Earnings are upcoming (Mar 2): if guidance disappoints, oversold can become “more oversold” quickly.
Profitability: Net income -2.007M (down -79.47% YoY) and EPS -0.02 (down -84.62% YoY) show earnings pressure versus last year.
Margins: Gross margin 71.48%, down ~3.98% YoY, indicating some margin compression even as revenue grows.
Takeaway: Strong revenue growth trend, but profitability/margins softened in the latest quarter—important heading into the Mar 2 earnings catalyst.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Clear upward momentum in price targets since early Dec 2025 through Jan 2026; multiple firms raised PTs into the ~$490–$525 range.
Bulls (pros): BofA/RBC/Needham/Truist/Oppenheimer/Goldman/Citi highlight database leadership, reaccelerating Atlas growth, AI positioning (vector search), and premium-multiple justification.
Bears/neutral (cons): Mizuho remains Neutral (PT $380) and Raymond James initiated at Market Perform, emphasizing consumption-model visibility risk and intensifying competition (Postgres/open-source ecosystems).
Overall Wall Street view: Skews strongly positive (many Buys/Outperforms and PT raises), with the primary debate centered on sustaining 20%+ growth and navigating the consumption-driven model.
Wall Street analysts forecast MDB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MDB is 468.85 USD with a low forecast of 380 USD and a high forecast of 550 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
28 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MDB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MDB is 468.85 USD with a low forecast of 380 USD and a high forecast of 550 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
24 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 326.500
Low
380
Averages
468.85
High
550
Current: 326.500
Low
380
Averages
468.85
High
550
BofA
Buy
maintain
$480 -> $500
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$480 -> $500
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on MongoDB to $500 from $480 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised estimates to reflect its updated view on MongoDB's growth potential and thinks a premium multiple is appropriate, given 30% Atlas growth compared to 11% for peers and its database leadership.
Truist
Buy
maintain
$450 -> $500
2026-01-07
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$450 -> $500
2026-01-07
maintain
Buy
Reason
Truist raised the firm's price target on MongoDB to $500 from $450 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Over the past year, a clear split has emerged between AI winners and losers, with seat-based business models down an average of 34% while other companies gained 24%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. This bifurcated sentiment is expected to continue driving a valuation gap in 2026, though some of last year's underperformers may rebound, the firm says.
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