Should I Buy MCRI? MCRI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Monarch Casino & Resort Inc (MCRI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

98.870

1 Day change

3.54%

52 Week Range

113.880

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is pushing into near-term resistance (R1 ~$95.64) while momentum looks stretched (RSI(6) ~75).
Trend is still constructive (MACD bullish), but risk/reward is not attractive at this level after earnings + with heavy put open interest skew.
Best stance today: Hold / avoid chasing; only becomes a cleaner buy on a pullback toward ~$92 (pivot) or ~$89 (S1) with momentum stabilizing.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram +0.626 and expanding → bullish momentum remains intact.
Overbought/Stretched: RSI_6 ~75 → short-term overbought conditions; upside may be limited near resistance.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → price is in a transition zone; breakouts can fail if not supported by volume.
Key levels: Pivot $92.31; Resistance R1 $95.64 (then R2 $97.70); Support S1 $88.98 (then S2 $86.92).
Near-term pattern bias (similar candlesticks): indicates ~+1.44% next day, +1.36% next week, +3.94% next month—supportive, but not enough to override near-term overbought + resistance setup.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put OI 399 vs Call OI 188 → OI Put/Call 2.12 suggests cautious/defensive sentiment (or hedging) around current levels.
Flow (Volume): Call volume 18, put volume 0 → today’s tape is small and one-sided, not a strong conviction signal.
Volatility: 30D IV ~37% vs historical vol ~17.8% and IV percentile ~87 → options are relatively expensive; market pricing elevated event/risk premium.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

supports shareholder-return narrative.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

implies notable hedging/caution near current price.
~~75 + price near R1 (~~$95.
increases odds of a pullback rather than immediate clean upside.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Growth: Revenue rose to ~$140.0M (+4.08% YoY) → steady top-line growth.
Margins: Gross margin improved to ~45.86% (+3.71% YoY) → operating efficiency/pricing appears favorable.
Bottom line (as provided): Net income and EPS shown as 0 (-100% YoY) → signals a sharp profitability drop in the snapshot (potentially one-time items); this is a key negative versus the otherwise decent revenue/margin trend.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update (2025-12-24): Jefferies kept Hold and raised price target to $112 (from $109).
Trend: modestly improving target but rating remains neutral → Wall Street sees upside but not enough conviction to call it a buy here.
Pros (Street view): proven management execution; high-quality assets in their markets; organic/capex growth potential.
Cons (Street view): neutral rating suggests valuation or near-term upside may be less compelling versus alternatives; post-earnings uncertainty can keep shares range-bound.

Influential trading check

Hedge funds: Neutral; no significant last-quarter trend.
Insiders: Neutral; no significant last-month trend.
Congress/politicians: No recent congress trading data available.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MCRI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCRI is 100 USD with a low forecast of 91 USD and a high forecast of 112 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 95.490

Low

Averages

100

High

112

Current: 95.490

Low

Averages

100

High

112

Jefferies

Hold

maintain

$109 -> $112

AI Analysis

2025-12-24

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$109 -> $112

AI Analysis

2025-12-24

maintain

Hold

Reason

Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Monarch Casino to $112 from $109 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Jefferies told investors that management execution is proven and the assets remain among the best in their respective markets. In revisiting casino stocks, the firm focused on growth potential both organically and from capital projects, as well as the execution by management teams rather than the "disparate" valuations.

Stifel

Hold

maintain

$92 -> $97

2025-10-22

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$92 -> $97

2025-10-22

maintain

Hold

Reason

Stifel raised the firm's price target on Monarch Casino to $97 from $92 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Results and commentary suggest sequential moderation in Reno following an "impressive" Q2, says the analyst, whose checks also indicate demand in both Reno and BH softened slightly in September. Macro uncertainty and a lack of near-term catalysts keep the firm on the sidelines for now, the analyst noted.

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MCRI Should I Buy

MCRI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Monarch Casino & Resort Inc (MCRI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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