Should I Buy MCO? MCO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Moody's Corp (MCO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

452.490

1 Day change

-1.14%

52 Week Range

546.880

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Buy now (tactical entry): Price is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~8) and sitting near key support (between S1 463.53 and S2 444.23), creating a favorable near-term rebound setup despite weak momentum.
Sentiment tailwind: Options positioning is call-leaning (put/call ratios < 1) with very elevated activity, consistent with traders leaning bullish into the next catalyst window.
Fundamental/Street support: Multiple recent upgrades/target hikes (GS, Stifel, Evercore) frame MCO as a 2026 issuance-cycle beneficiary and a durable compounder.
Key near-term catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market); implied vol is elevated, so the stock is likely to move.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -8.942 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is still dominant.
Oversold: RSI_6 = 7.965 → extremely oversold, often consistent with a short-term snapback/bounce risk for shorts.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → compression phase; typically precedes a stronger directional move once price breaks.
Levels:
- Pivot: 494.78 (reclaiming this would improve the bullish case)
- Support: S1 463.53 (price 459.84 slightly below), next S2 444.23
- Resistance: R1 526.03, R2 545.33
Pattern-based expectation (from similar candlesticks): ~50% chance of -3.7% next week, but +2.92% next month → choppy near-term, better odds improving over a month.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (sentiment): Put/Call OI = 0.86 and Put/Call Volume = 0.58 → more call interest/flow than puts (bullish tilt).
Activity spike: Today’s option volume 7,461 vs 30-day avg (reported) ~1,056.8% → unusually high attention.
Volatility: 30D IV 37.33 vs HV 36.6 (slightly richer); IV percentile 95.22 → options are priced for a bigger move (often around earnings).
Open interest: Calls 3,950 vs Puts 3,414 (call-leaning but not extreme).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market) can reset expectations and trigger a rebound if results/guide confirm issuance tailwinds.
- Analyst momentum: Recent upgrades/raised targets (Goldman, Stifel, Evercore) reinforce a constructive 2026 setup for rating agencies.
- Flow/support signals: Hedge funds are reported net buyers (buying amount +1000.52% QoQ), supportive for demand.
- Operational momentum (last reported quarter): Strong YoY growth in revenue, earnings, and margin (see financial section).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price action still weak: MACD is negative and worsening; the stock can stay oversold while drifting toward S2 ~444.
- Insider activity: Insiders are reported selling (selling amount +111.19% MoM), which can weigh on sentiment.
- Event-driven volatility: Options market is pricing a large move (very high IV percentile), increasing odds of sharp swings around earnings.
- News flow relevance: Provided news is largely macro/other companies (Berkshire/Apple/dividends) with no clear direct positive catalyst for MCO in the headlines.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $2.007B, +10.70% YoY → healthy top-line growth.
Net income: $646M, +20.97% YoY → profit growth outpacing revenue (operating leverage).
EPS: 3.6, +22.87% YoY → strong per-share earnings momentum.
Gross margin: 69.36%, +5.41% YoY → improving profitability/quality of earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend (recent changes): Clear bullish shift with multiple upgrades/target raises in late 2025 to early 2026.
Key actions:
- Goldman Sachs (2025-12-16): Upgraded to Buy, PT $570 (from $524) on structural/cyclical tailwinds in issuance and ratings growth.
- Stifel (2026-01-04/05): Upgraded to Buy, PT $574 (from $471), citing expectation for a strong 2026 debt issuance year; calls current levels a good entry.
- Evercore ISI (2026-01-08): Reiterated Outperform, raised PT to $620 (from $540); Moody’s framed as top pick among rating agencies.
Wall Street pro view (pros): Leverage to improved debt issuance cycle, strong business quality/compounding profile, improving profitability.
Wall Street con view (cons): Entry-point sensitivity/valuation discipline implied by commentary; earnings-cycle dependence on issuance volumes.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no notable political trading signal from the provided dataset).

MCO Should I Buy