Should I Buy MCHP? MCHP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

76.010

1 Day change

-2.60%

52 Week Range

81.430

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Good buy right now for a near-term catalyst-driven trade: multiple bullish pre-announcements + heavy analyst upgrades/target raises set up a favorable earnings narrative.
Technical structure is still constructively bullish (MA stack positive) with price sitting near pivot support (~77.28), offering a reasonable entry level.
Options positioning is bullish (puts relatively light vs calls), suggesting traders lean to upside.
Key downside check: very large increase in insider selling is the main fundamental/sentiment red flag, but it’s being outweighed near-term by improving forward commentary and Street upgrades.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bullish moving average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) supports an ongoing uptrend despite today’s pullback.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.287 and expanding negative = momentum has softened short-term; this is more “dip-entry” than breakout entry.
RSI: RSI(6) ~50 (neutral) implies room for either direction; not overbought.
Levels: Pivot 77.275 is the near-term line in the sand; upside resistances 80.338 (R1) then 82.231 (R2); supports 74.211 (S1) then 72.318 (S2).
Pattern-based stat: similar-candle model suggests next day -1.64% but next month +7.26%, aligning with a choppy near-term but constructive 1-month setup.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call ratios (OI PCR 0.58, Volume PCR 0.45) are bullish (calls dominating), implying upside-leaning sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV 52.44 vs HV 46.58 with IV percentile 76.89 = options are pricing elevated move expectations into earnings.
Activity: today’s option volume is ~81.9% of 30D avg (not a blowout), while open interest is slightly above average (~101.7%)—sentiment leans bullish without extreme crowding.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst (after hours 2026-02-05) with market expectation around $0.43 EPS / $1.19B revenue; recent coverage notes Microchip is expected to exceed earnings and guidance after positive pre-announcements.
- Analyst narrative is improving: firms cite industrial restocking, data center power/connectivity ramps, and better-than-seasonal trends.
- Recent price-target raises/upgrades from multiple firms can support incremental institutional demand.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insiders are Selling with selling amount up ~4258% over the last month (meaningful negative sentiment/overhang).
- Short-term momentum has weakened (negative/expanding MACD), raising the chance of post-earnings “sell-the-news” if expectations are already elevated.
- Macro tape is currently risk-off (S&P 500 down ~1.03% today), which can cap near-term multiple expansion for semis.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter provided: 2026/Q2 showed deterioration:
- Revenue $1.1404B (-2.01% YoY)
- Net income $13.9M (-82.27% YoY)
- EPS $0.03 (-78.57% YoY)
- Gross margin 46.46% (-0.94% YoY)
Interpretation: reported numbers were weak, but the more recent pre-announcements and analyst commentary imply an inflection/recovery (especially industrial), which is what the stock is currently trading on.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Rating/target trend (recent weeks): decisively bullish—a cluster of upgrades and target raises.
Notable changes:
- BofA upgraded to Buy with $95 PT (from $78) citing industrial replenishment and newer growth vectors.
- Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight and raised PT to $100 (from $85), pointing to above-seasonal trends and margin strength.
- UBS Buy $95, BNP Outperform $90 (upgrade), Susquehanna Positive $90, Needham Buy $77, with Morgan Stanley staying more cautious (Equal Weight, $69).
Wall Street pro view (pros/cons):
- Pros: broadening recovery, industrial restocking tailwind, data center-related ramps, and expectation for upside to results/guidance.
- Cons: some caution remains around auto/analog pockets and valuation sensitivity; not all firms are bullish (MS stays neutral).

18 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MCHP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCHP is 77.47 USD with a low forecast of 60 USD and a high forecast of 95 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

13 Buy

5 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 78.040

Low

Averages

77.47

High

Current: 78.040

Low

Averages

77.47

High

Needham

Buy

maintain

$77 -> $84

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Needham

Price Target

$77 -> $84

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Needham raised the firm's price target on Microchip to $84 from $77 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported Q3 revenue in line with its updated outlook and provided Q4 guidance above the Street's expectations, reflecting an improving demand environment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Mizuho

NULL -> Outperform

maintain

$83 -> $90

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$83 -> $90

2026-02-06

New

maintain

NULL -> Outperform

Reason

Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Microchip to $90 from $83 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MCHP

Unlock Now

MCHP Should I Buy

MCHP Should I Buy

Should You Buy Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch