Not a good buy right now: upside looks limited (PT $16 vs. $15.22 ~5% upside) and there’s no strong proprietary buy signal today.
Trend is mildly bullish but momentum is not accelerating (MACD positive but contracting), and the short-term pattern stats skew slightly negative over the next week/month.
Earnings/news were positive, but the options market is illiquid today (0 volume), so sentiment confirmation from options is weak.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages aligned up (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting an uptrend is still intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0558) but “positively contracting,” indicating bullish momentum is fading rather than strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at 57.1 is neutral-to-mildly bullish; not overbought and not a strong buy trigger.
Levels: Pivot 15.163 is essentially current area (15.22). Near resistance at R1 15.755 then R2 16.121. Supports at S1 14.571 then S2 14.205.
Short-horizon pattern read: Similar-pattern projection is slightly negative (next day -0.86%, next week -1.42%, next month -0.79% expected move).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 0.12 (very call-heavy OI), which can be interpreted as optimistic positioning, but it’s not confirmed by trading flow today.
Liquidity/flow: Today’s option volume is 0 (calls 0 / puts 0), so options “sentiment” from volume is effectively unavailable.
Volatility: 30D IV ~49.05 vs historical vol ~30.65 (IV elevated vs realized), but IV percentile 25.47 and IV rank 1.57 suggest IV is not extreme versus its own history.
Takeaway: Options data is too thin today to rely on; OI leans bullish but without active participation.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
Earnings/news sentiment: Strong quarter headlines—Q4 GAAP EPS $0.54 beat by $0.32; revenue reported at ~$260.0M, up ~76.9% YoY (per news summary).
Profitability momentum (per news): Net income for Q4 2025 reported at $124.3M; diluted EPS up sharply vs Q3 2025 (+125% QoQ in the summary).
Technical backdrop: Bullish moving-average stack supports “buy-the-dip” behavior if price holds above the pivot/support zone.
Options market is inactive today (0 volume), reducing confidence in sentiment read-through.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter season: 2025/Q4.
From news summary (headline strength): Q4 GAAP EPS $0.54; revenue ~$259.99M (+76.9% YoY); net income ~$124.3M; strong QoQ EPS growth cited.
From provided financial snapshot (data inconsistency to note): 2025/Q4 shows revenue 182.182M with -462.82% YoY, net income 124.302M with -200.79% YoY, EPS 0.56 with -108.56% YoY—these YoY percentages conflict with the news figures.
Practical takeaway: Operational results appear strong per earnings headlines (beat + growth), but the dataset has conflicting YoY calculations; directionally, the quarter looks better than expected based on the reported beat and income level.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Latest action (2026-02-04): Keefe Bruyette raised price target to $16 from $15.50; maintained Market Perform.
Trend: Slightly improving stance via PT raise, but rating remains neutral (not an upgraded buy).
Wall Street pro view (pros/cons):
Pros: PT moving up suggests incremental confidence post-results; modest upside remains if price pushes toward 16.
Wall Street analysts forecast MCHB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCHB is 14.5 USD with a low forecast of 14.5 USD and a high forecast of 14.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MCHB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCHB is 14.5 USD with a low forecast of 14.5 USD and a high forecast of 14.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 15.060
Low
14.5
Averages
14.5
High
14.5
Current: 15.060
Low
14.5
Averages
14.5
High
14.5
Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
maintain
$16
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$16
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Mechanics Bancorp to $16 from $15.50 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
Keefe Bruyette
Woody Lay
Market Perform
maintain
$14
2025-10-20
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Woody Lay
Price Target
$14
2025-10-20
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette analyst Woody Lay raised the firm's price target on Mechanics Bancorp to $14.50 from $14 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MCHB
