Not a good buy right now: price is in a clear downtrend (bearish MAs, negative/expanding MACD) and is sitting just above first support (S1=8.591), so downside risk is immediate if support breaks.
Oversold conditions (RSI_6≈20.8) can produce a short bounce, but there is no Intellectia entry signal today and the broader tape is risk-off (S&P 500 -1.2%), reducing the odds that a bounce becomes a durable reversal.
Sentiment factors lean negative: heavy insider selling signal and a cluster of recent downgrades/price-target cuts after guidance.
Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.166 and negatively expanding → selling pressure is increasing rather than stabilizing.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~20.84 signals oversold/washed-out conditions (bounce potential), but oversold alone is not a buy trigger without confirmation.
Key levels: Current ~8.605 is essentially on S1=8.591. A breakdown exposes S2=8.094 quickly. Upside hurdles: Pivot 9.395, then R1 10.199.
Pattern-based expectation (from similar candlesticks): 80% chance of a small uptick near-term (+2% next day/week), but the next-month expectation is negative (-~1.75%), consistent with “dead-cat bounce” risk.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open-interest put/call ratio of 0.58 shows call OI outweighs puts (can read as optimistic positioning, but can also reflect covered-call structures rather than outright bullish bets).
Flow today: Volume put/call ratio ~0.97 is near balanced → near-term sentiment is mixed rather than strongly bullish.
Activity/attention: Today’s option volume is ~46.6% above the 30-day average, and today’s open interest is ~95% above its 30-day average → elevated positioning/interest around current levels.
Volatility: IV30 ~60.4 vs HV ~58.9 (slightly elevated). IV percentile ~43.8 / IV rank ~38.3 → not “cheap vol,” but not extreme; options are pricing meaningful movement.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Technical: Oversold RSI near 20 and price sitting right on S1 support can spark a reflex rally if support holds.
Long-term product narrative (per bullish analysts): Surround ADAS/SuperVision pipeline and longer-duration optionality from robotaxi/Chauffeur initiatives.
Some support from bullish coverage remains (e.g., Tigress reiterating Buy with a high $25 target; Raymond James/Canaccord still constructive long-term).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Sentiment/behavior: Insiders are selling aggressively (reported selling amount up sharply over the last month), which is a near-term negative signal.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: 446M, down -8.98% YoY → top-line contraction (negative for near-term re-rating).
Profitability: Net income improved to -127M (loss narrowed, +78.87% YoY) and EPS improved to -0.16 (+77.78% YoY) → losses are shrinking, but still unprofitable.
Margins: Gross margin 45.29%, down -7.91% YoY → margin compression is a key concern alongside higher investment spend.
Overall: Improving loss metrics, but weakening revenue and gross margin keep the near-term setup unattractive for an “impatient buy now” approach.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Broadly negative revisions—several firms cut price targets and/or downgraded following Q4 and FY26 guidance commentary.
Downgrades/neutral stances: Arete to Neutral; HSBC to Hold; UBS/Goldman/Morgan Stanley/RBC largely Neutral/Sector Perform/Equal Weight with PTs clustered around ~$11–$13.
Bulls still exist: Tigress reiterates Buy with a $25 PT (outlier, long-duration thesis). Raymond James keeps Outperform (PT cut to $16). Canaccord keeps Buy (PT cut to $24).
Wall Street “pros”: Strong long-term ADAS/robotaxi optionality; potential earnings leverage if revenue inflects.
Wall Street “cons”: Near-term transition year dynamics, competitive/OEM insourcing risks, limited recent high-level autonomy award momentum, and higher opex weighing on EBIT guidance.
Wall Street analysts forecast MBLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MBLY is 17.59 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MBLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MBLY is 17.59 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
9 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 8.400
Low
12
Averages
17.59
High
30
Current: 8.400
Low
12
Averages
17.59
High
30
Tigress Financial
Buy
maintain
$25
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
Tigress Financial
Price Target
$25
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
maintain
Buy
Reason
Tigress Financial keeps a Buy rating and $25 price target on Mobileye, noting the stock investment story is supported by growing monetization of its higher-value Surround ADAS and SuperVision pipeline, a clear roadmap to eyes-off Chauffeur/Drive robotaxis, and long-duration upside from Mentee Robotics-driven Physical AI and humanoid robotics. These create a compelling long-term investment opportunity in Mobileye, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Arete
Alexis Unger
Buy
to
Neutral
downgrade
$15.70
2026-01-27
Reason
Arete
Alexis Unger
Price Target
$15.70
2026-01-27
downgrade
Buy
to
Neutral
Reason
Arete analyst Alexis Unger downgraded Mobileye to Neutral from Buy with a $15.70 price target.
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