Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the chart is extended (RSI ~71) and price is near resistance (R1 ~42.64) while downside support is meaningfully lower (pivot ~39.13).
Options positioning is skewed bearish (put OI dominates), which reduces confidence in chasing the current uptrend at this level.
Hedge funds have been accumulating aggressively, which is a medium-term positive, but near-term timing is unfavorable with earnings on 2026-02-10 (after hours) and no proprietary “strong buy” signals today.
Trend/MAs: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.716) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is still positive but fading.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~71.4 indicates the stock is stretched/overbought in the short term, increasing pullback risk.
Levels: Pivot support ~39.13; resistance at R1 ~42.64 then R2 ~44.81. With price ~41.73, upside to R1 is limited versus downside to pivot.
Pattern-based projection: modest expected edge (next month +2.5%), but near-term (next week -0.31%) is slightly negative.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Put open interest (611) greatly exceeds call open interest (177), producing a high OI put/call (3.45) = defensive/bearish skew.
Liquidity/Activity: Today’s option volume is 0 and call volume is 0 (very thin activity), so sentiment signals are mostly from positioning rather than fresh flows.
Volatility: IV (30d ~52.3) is below recent averages (5d ~54.7; 10d ~62.4) with low IV rank/percentile (rank ~12.6; percentile ~21.9), implying options are not priced for an extreme move right now—despite upcoming earnings.
Setup into next report: Next earnings 2026-02-10 (after hours); market focus will be on whether the earnings decline stabilizes and whether guidance supports the uptrend.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided in the feed, so a recent trend assessment cannot be confirmed from this dataset.
Wall Street-style cons (based on provided data): YoY earnings and net income compression; options positioning skewed defensive; limited near-term upside vs nearby resistance.
Wall Street analysts forecast MBIN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MBIN is 41 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MBIN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MBIN is 41 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 42.170
Low
40
Averages
41
High
42
Current: 42.170
Low
40
Averages
41
High
42
Piper Sandler
Overweight
maintain
$41 -> $42
AI Analysis
2025-10-30
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$41 -> $42
AI Analysis
2025-10-30
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Merchants Bancorp to $42 from $41 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's Q3 results were mixed given relatively elevated NCOs and as both NPAs and substandard loans again increased. Encouragingly, Piper has greater conviction that Merchants has largely ring-fenced or exited fraud-related credits coming out of Q3 and asset quality metrics should begin to inflect favorably in early 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight -> Attractive
upgrade
$34 -> $39
2025-09-29
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$34 -> $39
2025-09-29
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Attractive
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Merchants Bancorp to $39 from $34 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. A steepening yield curve with lower short end rates is \"an ideal backdrop for Midcap Banks,\" says the analyst, who is upgrading the industry view to Attractive. The midcap banks group has underperformed year-to-date, setting up \"a compelling buying opportunity,\" the analyst tells investors.
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