Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: there is no proprietary buy signal, technicals are mixed/indecisive, and fundamentals recently deteriorated.
Price is sitting right on the pivot (~6.51) with nearby resistance (6.67–6.78) overhead; upside looks capped unless it cleanly breaks above R1/R2.
Options positioning (OI put/call 0.3) leans bullish, but today’s option flow is thin and skewed to puts, and IV is extremely elevated—more “event/uncertainty” than clean conviction.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.00731) and expanding, suggesting mild upward momentum, but it’s not strong.
RSI: RSI(6) at 47.48 is neutral—no overbought/oversold edge.
Moving averages: Converging MAs indicate consolidation rather than a clear uptrend.
Key levels: Pivot 6.512 (current ~6.52). Immediate resistance at R1 6.674 then R2 6.775; support at S1 6.349 then S2 6.248.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern stats imply a slightly negative near-term bias (next day -1.34%, next week -2.46%), with only modest 1-month upside (+0.88%).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from open interest: Put/Call OI ratio 0.3 (calls outweigh puts) is generally bullish positioning.
Actual trading today: Call volume 0 vs put volume 41 (Put/Call volume ratio 0.0 per feed) suggests minimal participation and no strong bullish “chase” today.
Volatility: 30D IV ~133.53 vs historical vol ~44.5 indicates very expensive options and elevated uncertainty; IV percentile ~60.6 (above mid-range).
Activity: Today’s option volume (41) is low in absolute terms but ~2.82x the 30D average; open interest is sizable (total OI ~40.8k) and today vs OI avg is high (126.7), which can reflect repositioning ahead of events.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-03-02 after hours could act as a catalyst (positive surprise could move a small-cap quickly).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
No news in the past week: lack of fresh catalysts makes it harder for price to break out of consolidation.
Near-term statistical edge is slightly negative (pattern-based next-day and next-week projections).
Extremely high implied volatility (133%+) signals uncertainty and can coincide with sharp moves; combined with thin option flow, price can be erratic without providing a clean entry.
Macro tape is risk-off today (S&P 500 -1.22%), which can pressure small caps/financial names.
No notable hedge fund or insider accumulation trends reported recently (both neutral).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $15.0M, -48.28% YoY (sharp contraction).
Net income: -$8.0M, -85.71% YoY (meaningfully worse profitability).
EPS: -0.16, -86.32% YoY.
Overall read: recent quarter shows worsening growth/profit trends, which weakens the “buy now” case unless you’re specifically trading a catalyst (e.g., dividend/earnings surprise).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change: On 2025-11-19, Keefe Bruyette raised price target to $8.50 from $8 and maintained Outperform.
Trend summary: Only one explicit recent analyst update in the data; direction is supportive (PT up, rating positive).
Wall Street pro view (pros): Potential special dividend mentioned; maintained Outperform suggests perceived upside vs current ~$6.52.
Wall Street con view (cons): Fundamentals in the latest quarter are weak (revenue/EPS decline), and without a clear catalyst/tape support, upside may not materialize quickly.
Wall Street analysts forecast MBI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MBI is 7.75 USD with a low forecast of 7 USD and a high forecast of 8.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MBI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MBI is 7.75 USD with a low forecast of 7 USD and a high forecast of 8.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 6.570
Low
7
Averages
7.75
High
8.5
Current: 6.570
Low
7
Averages
7.75
High
8.5
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
maintain
$8
AI Analysis
2025-11-19
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$8
AI Analysis
2025-11-19
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on MBIA to $8.50 from $8 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Another special dividend near-term should not be ruled out, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
