Should I Buy MAX? MAX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Mediaalpha Inc (MAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

8.950

1 Day change

6.17%

52 Week Range

13.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: price is in a strong downtrend (bearish MA stack + worsening MACD) and the near-term pattern/probability skew points to further downside over the next week.
Although the stock is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~4.7) and near support, there is no Intellectia buy signal today (no AI Stock Picker, no SwingMax), so the risk of a continued “falling knife” move is high for an impatient buyer.
Better stance now is to hold off on a new entry until momentum stabilizes (e.g., MACD histogram stops expanding negative / price reclaims key levels).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downside pressure across timeframes.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.192 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening, not improving.
Oversold: RSI_6 at 4.748 is extremely oversold, which can trigger short bounces, but oversold alone is not a reliable buy signal in a strong downtrend.
Levels: Pivot 9.935 (well above current 8.78). Immediate supports: S1 8.95 (already below), then S2 8.341; resistance levels: 10.921 / 11.53.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: AI Stock Picker = no signal today; SwingMax = no recent signal → no “priority” systematic buy confirmation.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow: Open interest put/call at 0.09 suggests longer-dated positioning leans call-heavy, but today’s put-heavy volume (put/call volume 9.83) signals near-term bearish sentiment/hedging.
Volatility: IV_30d 74.73 vs historical vol 37.93 → options are pricing large moves; near-term options activity is elevated (today volume vs 30D avg ~156.82%).
Net read: sentiment is nervous/bearish in the very near term despite call-heavy outstanding open interest.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Next earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23 (after hours); EPS est. ~0.25 could reset sentiment if results/guide beat.
- Financial trajectory (last reported quarter) shows strong top-line and earnings growth (supports a longer-term bull case if margins stabilize).
- Extremely oversold RSI can produce sharp technical rebounds if selling pressure exhausts.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- No recent news flow to explain/stop the selloff; without a catalyst, downtrends often persist.
- Technical pressure is heavy: bearish MA structure + worsening MACD suggests sellers remain in control.
- Quant pattern outlook provided: estimated 70% chance of -1.24% next day and -3.97% next week (near-term bias remains down).
- No notable supportive flow from insiders/hedge funds (both reported Neutral), and no congress trading data to indicate influential buying support.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 306.514M, +18.28% YoY (solid growth).
Net income: 14.907M, +57.21% YoY (profit growth strong).
EPS: 0.26, +52.94% YoY (earnings momentum positive).
Gross margin: 14.16%, -6.47% YoY (key concern: profitability quality/mix and potential pressure on future earnings leverage).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating or price-target change data was provided, so recent Wall Street upgrades/downgrades and target revisions cannot be confirmed from this dataset.
Practical “Street pros vs cons” view from the available fundamentals: Pros—strong YoY revenue/EPS growth; Cons—declining gross margin and current price action/momentum is decisively bearish.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MAX is 16.75 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 19 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 8.430

Low

Averages

16.75

High

Current: 8.430

Low

Averages

16.75

High

Goldman Sachs

Neutral

maintain

$12

AI Analysis

2025-10-31

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$12

AI Analysis

2025-10-31

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on MediaAlpha to $13.50 from $12 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

JPMorgan

Cory Carpenter

Overweight

maintain

$14 -> $15

2025-10-30

Reason

JPMorgan

Cory Carpenter

Price Target

$14 -> $15

2025-10-30

maintain

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan analyst Cory Carpenter raised the firm's price target on MediaAlpha to $15 from $14 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm upped estimates citing ramping auto carrier spend into year-end.

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MAX Should I Buy

MAX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Mediaalpha Inc (MAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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