Should I Buy MATW? MATW 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Matthews International Corp (MATW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

27.160

1 Day change

2.92%

52 Week Range

29.110

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: price is breaking below near-term support with bearish momentum signals.
Options positioning is decisively defensive (puts dominate), suggesting the market is still leaning bearish after earnings.
Fundamentals have a balance-sheet improvement catalyst (deleveraging + divestitures), but operating picture is mixed (big revenue decline + non-GAAP EPS miss), so the stock likely needs time to base.
For an impatient buyer, risk/reward is unfavorable until MATW reclaims the 26.58 pivot and holds above it.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram (-0.171) is below zero and expanding negatively -> bearish momentum increasing.
RSI: RSI(6)=32.39 is near oversold (weakness is extended but not clearly reversing yet).
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest potential stabilization, but no confirmed turn up.
Levels: Current 25.43 is below Pivot 26.58 and slightly below S1 25.60; next support S2 is 25.00. If S2 breaks, downside acceleration risk rises.
Near-term setup: technically looks like a weak/breakdown zone rather than a clean buy-the-dip entry for someone unwilling to wait.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Put skew is very high: OI put/call=2.32 and volume put/call=11.67 -> bearish sentiment/hedging dominates.
Activity: today volume (76) is below its 5D/10D averages (210/176), but open interest is elevated vs 30D averages (today_vs_OI_avg_30D=141.5), implying positioning remains on.
Volatility: IV30=47.54 vs HV=38.71 (IV>HV) but IV percentile 18.73 / IV rank 10.34 -> options are relatively cheap versus the last year, suggesting post-event vol crush and no panic bid in IV despite bearish positioning.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Balance sheet catalyst: leverage ratio reduced below 3x via divestitures (warehouse automation + European packaging) totaling $266M.
- Earnings quality headline improved: Q1 FY2026 net income turned positive ($43.6M vs prior-year loss).
- Segment strength: Memorialization sales +7% YoY to $204.2M (helped by Dodge acquisition).
- Guidance: management expects FY2026 adjusted EBITDA ≥ $180M.
- Governance/event catalyst: agreement with activist investor Barington could drive strategic/operational changes.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price action is weak today (-3.27%) while the broader market is also down (S&P 500 -1.46%), indicating risk-off plus stock-specific pressure.
- Earnings miss: Q1 non-GAAP EPS -$0.19 missed expectations.
- Revenue trend: Q1 revenue down ~29% YoY (284.7M), signaling contraction/portfolio shrink and/or demand weakness.
- Energy Solutions headwinds explicitly called out as a challenge.
- Options market is positioned bearishly (puts heavily dominate), which can cap rallies unless positioning unwinds.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: FY2026 Q1.
Revenue: $284.763M, down ~29.14% YoY (material top-line contraction).
Profitability: net income reported at ~$43.6M (improved sharply from prior-year loss per news), while non-GAAP EPS was -$0.19 (miss).
Margins: gross margin increased to ~33.96% (+15.94% YoY), indicating better mix/cost control despite lower sales.
Balance sheet/strategy: divestiture proceeds used to reduce leverage below 3x; management guiding FY2026 adjusted EBITDA ≥ $180M.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No explicit analyst rating changes or price target revisions were provided in the data.
Street setup into the print was cautious (consensus expected steep YoY EPS decline; revenue expected ~-30% YoY).
Wall Street-style pros: deleveraging progress, improved reported profitability, margin expansion, activist-driven potential catalysts, and EBITDA floor guidance.
Wall Street-style cons: large revenue decline, non-GAAP EPS miss, and segment headwinds (Energy Solutions) plus bearish options positioning indicating skepticism.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MATW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MATW is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy