Should I Buy MAA? MAA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

132.130

1 Day change

1.08%

52 Week Range

173.380

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is in a clear downtrend with deteriorating momentum and weak near-term return odds.
Fundamentals/news skew negative (sharp Q4 EPS drop, flat-to-down same-store performance), which can keep pressure on the stock despite being near support.
Options positioning is mixed (heavy put open interest vs. call-heavy volume today), but not strong enough to override the bearish trend.
Wall Street targets imply upside from $130, but ratings are mostly Neutral/Equal Weight with cautious commentary—more “wait for stabilization” than “buy now.”

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, and a MACD histogram at -0.409 that is negative and expanding (downtrend strengthening).
RSI: RSI_6 at 33.4 is near oversold territory (can bounce), but it’s not a confirmed reversal signal by itself.
Levels: Immediate support is S1 ~130.71 and then S2 ~129.12; current price (130.41) is already below S1, so the next downside magnet is ~129.12. Resistance/pivot overhead at ~133.27, then ~135.84.
Pattern-based forward odds (given): Expected bias is slightly negative (-0.58% 1-week, -1.73% 1-month), which aligns with the current bearish trend.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open-interest put/call of 2.04 is put-heavy (more protective/defensive positioning over time), typically bearish-to-cautious.
Flow Today: Volume put/call of 0.33 shows more calls traded than puts today (tactically bullish/looking for a bounce), but it conflicts with the heavier put OI.
Volatility: 30D IV ~22.84 vs historical vol ~19.92; IV percentile ~54 suggests options are not extremely expensive or extremely cheap—no strong “panic” read.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst upside exists: multiple price targets sit well above $130 (e.g., $158 BMO, $160 Citizens), implying potential mean reversion if fundamentals stabilize.
- Sector macro potential: Several analysts cite 2026 supply easing / Sunbelt dynamics and possible rate-cut tailwinds as catalysts for apartment REITs.
- Balance sheet/credit profile noted as robust in recent commentary, which can support the dividend and reduce downside tail risk.
- Long-term pipeline optionality: land acquired in Kansas City and Phoenix for future development.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings quality/news shock: Q4 2025 diluted EPS reported at $0.48, down ~66.9% YoY—headline-negative and likely a near-term sentiment drag.
- Operating trend softening: 2025 same-store revenues -0.1%, expenses +0.7%, NOI -0.5% (pressure on cash flow).
- Technical trend is decisively bearish (moving averages stacked down; MACD worsening), increasing risk of support breaks.
- Flows: Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up 1280.27% over the last quarter), signaling institutional risk-off.
- No supportive political flow signal: no recent congress trading data available.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $554.373M, up +0.59% YoY (low growth).
Profitability: Net income $98.564M, down -13.71% YoY; EPS $0.84, down -14.29% YoY.
Margins: Gross margin 57.75%, down -1.25% YoY (incremental compression).
Recent quarter news context (Q4 2025): diluted EPS $0.48 (very large YoY decline) and same-store NOI down, reinforcing the weakening earnings trajectory.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend is mixed: one notable upgrade (BMO to Outperform, PT $158) alongside several Neutral/In Line/Equal Weight stances and multiple target trims (e.g., Goldman to $139 Neutral; Scotiabank downgrade to Sector Perform $142).
Targets cluster roughly mid-$130s to $160, with the lower end (UBS $134, Cantor $137, Goldman $139) closer to price—suggesting limited near-term conviction.
Wall Street pros: expectation for Sunbelt improvement into 2026, easing supply, and potential rate-cut tailwinds; MAA viewed as a quality REIT with a solid profile.
Wall Street cons: more challenging fundamentals near-term (slower lease-ups, expense pressures), and several firms remain neutral—implying “not compelling enough to chase today.”

18 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MAA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MAA is 147.24 USD with a low forecast of 132.11 USD and a high forecast of 167 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Buy

8 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 130.720

Low

132.11

Averages

147.24

High

167

Current: 130.720

Low

132.11

Averages

147.24

High

167

Colliers

Buy

Neutral

downgrade

$145

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Colliers

Price Target

$145

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Buy

Neutral

Reason

Colliers downgraded MAA to Neutral from Buy with a $145 price target.

RBC Capital

Sector Perform

downgrade

$138 -> $136

2026-02-06

New

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$138 -> $136

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Sector Perform

Reason

RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on MAA to $136 from $138 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company's 2026 guidance was well below expectations, partially on an unexpectedly high level of development starts and the related FFO drag, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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MAA Should I Buy

MAA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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