Should I Buy LYG? LYG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

5.910

1 Day change

1.72%

52 Week Range

6.340

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is breaking down (-5.60% today, -5.36% pre-market) and the near-term pattern model points to further downside odds (next day/week/month bias negative).
Best read here is “hold/avoid new entry” until the selloff stabilizes above the pivot (~5.928) or shows a clean bounce off support (5.616 / 5.423).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but today’s sharp drop suggests a short-term trend break/pullback is dominating.
MACD: Histogram is positive (0.0228) but “positively contracting,” implying upside momentum is fading rather than strengthening.
RSI (6): 43.4 (neutral-to-weak), consistent with a market that has room to fall before becoming oversold.
Levels: Price 5.8 is below pivot 5.928 (bearish near-term). Immediate support S1 5.616 then S2 5.423; resistance R1 6.241 then R2 6.434.
Quant/pattern outlook provided: 70% chance of -2.52% next day, -4.29% next week, -6.34% next month (near-term downside skew).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Very call-heavy (OI put/call 0.2; volume put/call 0.01), implying bullish skew/speculation despite the drop.
Activity: Today’s option volume 10,387 vs 30-day avg ~~1,498.6 (~~564% of avg) and open interest also elevated vs average (~170%), signaling unusually high attention.
Volatility: 30D IV 26.25 vs HV 18.38 (options pricing in more movement than realized). IV percentile ~18.7 and IV rank ~7.2 = relatively low vs its own history, which typically makes calls “cheaper,” supporting the call-skew behavior.
Net take: Options market is leaning bullish, but price action is currently overpowering; call-skew can also reflect positioning into/around earnings and buyback headlines already known.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Shareholder returns: Final dividend (2.43p) and a new share buyback up to £1.75B.
- Fundamental momentum: 2025 underlying net interest income £13.6B (+6% YoY).
- Guidance: 2026 underlying NII expected ~£14.9B and cost:income ratio targeted below 50%.
- Earnings: Q4 2025 GAAP EPS 2.20p, beat by 0.20p.
- Efficiency/innovation narrative: GenAI value ~£50M in 2025, expected >£100M in 2026; management cited £1.4B annualized additional revenues for 2025 with expectation of £2B by end-2026.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price action risk: sharp selloff today and model-implied near-term downside bias (day/week/month).
- Event digestion: Q4 revenue £5.12B (+8.7% YoY) still missed expectations slightly (~£10M), which can matter in a risk-off tape.
- Macro tape: broader market weak (S&P 500 -1.38%), which often pressures financials.
- No confirming Intellectia entry signal today (reduces confidence in “buy the dip now” for an impatient trader).

Financial Performance

Latest reported period: Q4 2025 (and FY 2025 updates referenced in news).
Q4 2025: GAAP EPS 2.20p (beat by 0.20p); revenue £5.12B (+8.7% YoY) but a small miss vs expectations.
FY/2025 operating trend: underlying net interest income £13.6B (+6% YoY).
Capital return posture supportive: dividend + buyback (up to £1.75B) reinforces management confidence and can support the stock once selling pressure fades.
Note: detailed financial snapshot table not provided (source error), so assessment is based on the news figures above.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend: price targets have generally moved up (e.g., Deutsche Bank 125 GBp from 110; JPMorgan 117 from 102; Morgan Stanley 110 from 100), indicating improving valuation views.
Ratings mix: Deutsche Bank = Buy; Morgan Stanley = Overweight; JPMorgan = Neutral (despite PT raises); BofA = Hold; BNPP downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.
Wall St pros: improving targets, capital returns (buyback/dividend), NII growth and constructive 2026 outlook.
Wall St cons: multiple “Neutral/Hold” stances suggest upside may be viewed as more incremental and/or more macro-dependent; today’s selloff reinforces near-term caution.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LYG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LYG is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 5.810

Low

Averages

High

Current: 5.810

Low

Averages

High

Deutsche Bank

Robert Noble

Buy

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

Reason

Deutsche Bank

Robert Noble

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Noble raised the firm's price target on Lloyds Banking to 125 GBp from 110 GBp and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

JPMorgan

Neutral

upgrade

2026-01-20

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

2026-01-20

upgrade

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Lloyds Banking to 117 GBp from 102 GBp and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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LYG Should I Buy

LYG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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