Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the primary trend is still decisively bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 and MACD histogram negative and worsening).
While RSI(6)=14.38 is deeply oversold and could spark a short-term bounce, there is no Intellectia buy signal (no AI Stock Picker, no SwingMax) to justify jumping in immediately.
Options positioning is skewed bullish (calls favored), but overall volume is light vs the 30-day average, so sentiment isn’t showing strong conviction.
With earnings on 2026-02-23 (pre-market) and an analyst downgrade highlighting asset-quality/regulatory cycle pressure, risk of further downside remains high; better to hold/avoid initiating a new position today.
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked down (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), suggesting rallies may get sold.
Momentum: MACD histogram = -0.0158 (below 0) and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
Oscillator: RSI_6 = 14.38 (extreme oversold) → bounce risk is elevated, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Levels: Pivot 2.866 is overhead; near-term resistance at 3.034 then 3.138. Support zone at S2 2.594 (price 2.63 is close), then S1 2.698 overhead as a reclaim level.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern model implies modest upside probabilities (+0.35% next day, +0.95% next week, +6.02% next month), but this conflicts with currently deteriorating MACD/moving-average trend—treat as a secondary input.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.73 and put/call volume ratio 0.24 indicate call-leaning sentiment.
Activity: Today’s options volume is 108 vs 30-day average participation at 33.75% → sentiment is not accompanied by heavy flow.
Volatility: 30D IV 83.88 vs historical volatility 31.28 → options are pricing large moves; IV percentile 61.35 (moderately elevated).
Interpretation: Bullish skew exists, but high IV + light volume suggests caution; market is not strongly “betting big” on an immediate upside reversal.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
deeply oversold can trigger a fast short-covering/oversold bounce.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Strong bearish trend persists (bearish MA stack + worsening MACD) → higher odds of continued drift lower or failed rebounds.
Fundamental quality concerns flagged by Wall Street: UBS downgrade cites asset quality cycle and regulatory cycle pressures; expects range-bound until peaks are confirmed (likely Q1 2026).
Growth headwind: 2025/Q3 revenue -6.68% YoY and gross margin -5.69% YoY point to pressure on top-line and efficiency.
No supportive near-term narrative: no positive news flow in the last week, and no notable hedge fund/insider accumulation trends provided.
Market tape: SP500 down -1.3% on the day adds risk-off pressure to small-cap/China-financial names.
Net income: 521,268,000 (up +68.39% YoY) → strong improvement in profitability.
EPS: 1.46 (up +58.70% YoY) → earnings per share growth is solid.
Gross margin: 61.88 (down -5.69% YoY) → margin compression despite higher net income (suggests mix/credit cost/operating levers driving net results).
Takeaway: Earnings improved materially, but revenue and margin trends are not cleanly bullish; this fits the “asset quality cycle” caution from the analyst note.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Most recent change: [2025-12-04] UBS downgraded LX to Neutral from Buy.
Price target cut: to $3.50 from $13.60 (large reset lower).
Rationale: bigger earnings impact from the current asset quality cycle; shares likely range-bound until asset quality and regulatory cycles peak (UBS points to likely Q1 2026).
Wall Street pros: improving net income/EPS trend could support a rebound if credit metrics stabilize.
Wall Street cons: uncertainty around asset quality/regulatory environment caps upside and keeps sentiment cautious in the near term.
Wall Street analysts forecast LX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LX is 3.5 USD with a low forecast of 3.5 USD and a high forecast of 3.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LX is 3.5 USD with a low forecast of 3.5 USD and a high forecast of 3.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 2.650
Low
3.5
Averages
3.5
High
3.5
Current: 2.650
Low
3.5
Averages
3.5
High
3.5
UBS
Buy -> Neutral
downgrade
AI Analysis
2025-12-04
Reason
UBS
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-12-04
downgrade
Buy -> Neutral
Reason
UBS downgraded LexinFintech to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $3.50, down from $13.60. The firm cut estimates for the company citing a bigger earnings impact from the current asset quality cycle. It sees the LexinFintech shares being range-bound until the peaks of asset quality and regulatory cycles are confirmed, which is thinks is likely in Q1 of 2026.
