Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the trend is bullish, but momentum is overheated (RSI-6 ~85) and price is sitting near resistance after a strong run.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call ratios < 1), but hedge funds are net selling heavily, which is a notable sentiment headwind.
Fundamentals and 2026 guidance momentum are improving, but with no Intellectia buy signals today and an overbought technical setup, risk/reward is not attractive for an immediate chase.
MACD: Histogram +0.889 and expanding → confirms bullish momentum.
RSI (6): 85.08 (overbought) → higher probability of a near-term pullback/consolidation than a clean continuation.
Levels:
Pivot support: 46.42 (major reference support)
Near-term resistance: R2 53.89; price 52.06 is already above R1 (51.03) and approaching R2.
Market tape: S&P 500 -1.44% today; LUV down modestly (-0.89%)—holding up, but broad risk-off can pressure extended names.
Pattern-based forward drift (given): ~+0.02% next day, +1.68% next week, +1.33% next month → modest upside expectation, not a high-conviction immediate breakout signal.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Put/Call (OI) 0.76 and Put/Call (volume) 0.71 → options market leaning bullish (more calls than puts).
Today’s option volume 23,795, about 79% of 30-day avg → sentiment is constructive but not on outsized participation.
IV context: 30D IV 38.14 vs historical vol 56.19; IV percentile ~41% / IV rank ~18% → options are not especially expensive, implying no extreme fear bid.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
suggests bullish trader tilt.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical setup is stretched: RSI ~85 overbought and price near resistance (~53.9), making an immediate entry less attractive.
Hedge funds are selling, with selling amount up 203.52% QoQ → institutional flow headwind.
Wall Street still not fully convinced: many firms remain Neutral/Hold, with notable bearish holdouts (e.g., Sell/Underperform ratings).
Execution risk remains (explicitly cited by analysts): initiatives must translate into sustained unit revenue/margin improvement.
No supportive signal from Intellectia modules today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax entry).
Gross margin: 69.85%, up 1.59% YoY → incremental margin improvement supports the turnaround thesis.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: broad wave of price target raises after Q4 results and 2026 outlook; ratings mostly Neutral/Hold, with one notable upgrade to Outperform.
Latest actions (high level):
Positive: BMO upgraded to Outperform with $57.50 PT (sees multi-year runway and upside to $4+ EPS).
Bearish holdouts: Goldman Sell (PT raised to $32), BofA Underperform (PT raised to $42)—both acknowledge better earnings but argue much may be priced in / execution risk.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: turnaround milestones, improving earnings power into 2026, shareholder returns.
Cons: crowded neutral stance implies limited near-term upside from here unless execution beats again; some believe valuation/price already reflects much of the good news.
Influential trading check:
Insiders: Neutral (no significant recent trend).
Congress: No recent data available.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast LUV stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LUV is 44.21 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LUV stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LUV is 44.21 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 52.510
Low
34
Averages
44.21
High
60
Current: 52.510
Low
34
Averages
44.21
High
60
Susquehanna
Neutral
maintain
$45 -> $55
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Susquehanna
Price Target
$45 -> $55
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Southwest to $55 from $45 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm said the company has made meaningful progress with its turnaround efforts, with the carrier going into 2026 with renewed momentum having completed seemingly unachievable internal and external goals, such as streamlining the corporate workforce, introducing bag fees, and most recently, assigned and extra-legroom seating. And while execution risk remains, the firm is getting more comfortable with management's ability to set and hit its targets.
Citi
Neutral
maintain
$44 -> $54
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$44 -> $54
2026-02-03
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on Southwest to $54 from $44 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates and targets in the airlines group following the Q4 reports. Citi is "tactically bullish" on the sector.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for LUV
