Should I Buy LUCK? LUCK 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Lucky Strike Entertainment Corp (LUCK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

6.630

1 Day change

4.57%

52 Week Range

13.250

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is in a sharp downtrend (today -16% on a risk-off tape) with bearish momentum still expanding.
Oversold (RSI-6 ~15) can produce a dead-cat bounce, but there is no proprietary buy signal confirming a high-probability entry.
Near-term headline risk remains elevated into the next earnings event (2026-02-11 after-hours), so odds of additional downside/whipsaw are high.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish across timeframes (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.187 and negatively expanding = downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
Overbought/oversold: RSI_6 at 15.19 = deeply oversold; bounce is possible, but oversold is not a buy trigger without reversal confirmation.
Levels: Prior reference supports are above current price (S2 6.548, S1 7.146). With price at ~6, the stock is already below the listed S2 area, signaling a support break and increased risk of continuation selling.
Pattern-based expectation (provided): modest positive drift probabilities (next week/month), but not strong enough to override the active bearish trend and earnings risk.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI at 0.57 and volume put/call at 0.13 = call-heavy flow (bullish/speculative sentiment).
Activity: Today’s options volume vs 30-day average is very elevated (~429%), suggesting event-driven trading.
Volatility: 30D IV ~62.6% vs HV ~48.5% = options pricing implies elevated forward uncertainty; this typically aligns with upcoming catalysts (earnings) and recent large moves.
Takeaway: Options are leaning bullish, but this looks more like speculative dip-buying ahead of a catalyst rather than confirmed trend reversal.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Dividend support: $0.06 quarterly dividend reiterated/declared (news flow may help sentiment and provide some downside support).
- Business expansion: Acquisition of Raging Waters water park adds an asset/catalyst narrative.
- Same-store sales: Q2 2026 same-store sales +0.3% (small but positive) and revenue growth +2.3% reported in the news summary.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings/operational softness: Analysts cite soft fiscal 2Q26 results with revenue and (especially) adjusted EBITDA below consensus; corporate events demand remains soft.
- Imminent catalyst risk: Next earnings on 2026-02-11 after-hours can create another gap move; recent miss increases downside sensitivity.
- Price action: Large single-day selloff (-16% regular session) with bearish MA stack and worsening MACD suggests forced selling / negative repricing.
- No supportive flow signals: Hedge funds and insiders are described as Neutral with no significant recent buying trends.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2026/Q2): Revenue rose to 613.7M (+104.52% YoY), but profitability deteriorated.
Net income: -15.1M (down -161.70% YoY) = losses widened despite revenue growth.
EPS: 0 (down -100% YoY), reinforcing that the growth is not currently translating into shareholder earnings.
Gross margin: 66.11 (up +135.69% YoY) shows improvement in margin structure, but it has not offset operating/other cost pressures enough to produce net profits.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Multiple firms lowered price targets after the Q2 miss (Canaccord 14->13; JPMorgan 9->8; prior cuts from Piper and Roth). Directionally, Wall Street is getting more cautious.
Ratings stance: Canaccord remains Buy (more optimistic), while JPMorgan/Piper/Roth are Neutral (wait-and-see).
Wall Street pros: Improved food & beverage initiatives, stable retail traffic, and strategic acquisitions/dividend may support longer-term value.
Wall Street cons: Soft corporate events demand and earnings/EBITDA underperformance are the key bear points; repeated PT cuts signal reduced confidence in near-term upside.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LUCK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LUCK is 13.36 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 6.340

Low

Averages

13.36

High

Current: 6.340

Low

Averages

13.36

High

Noble Capital

Outperform

NULL

downgrade

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Noble Capital

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Outperform

NULL

Reason

Noble Capital lowered the firm's price target on Lucky Strike to $14.50 from $17.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following the company's Q2 report. The firm notes that its FY26 forecast is near the low end of company's guidance for $1.26B-$1.31B in revenue and $375M-$415M in adjusted EBITDA.

Roth Capital

Eric Handler

Neutral

downgrade

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Roth Capital

Eric Handler

Price Target

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Roth Capital analyst Eric Handler lowered the firm's price target on Lucky Strike to $7.50 from $9 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's elevated Q2 expenses fueled a sizable EBITDA miss, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Expenses are being more tightly managed to improve operating leverage, but there is now increased pressure on growth, the firm added.

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LUCK Should I Buy

LUCK Should I Buy

Should You Buy Lucky Strike Entertainment Corp (LUCK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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