Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: near-term technical momentum is still deteriorating (bearish MACD expansion) and pattern-based stats skew negative for the next day/week.
Medium-term setup remains attractive (bullish longer-term moving averages + strong fundamentals + broad analyst upgrades), but current tape suggests you’re early and could face immediate drawdown toward ~$200 support.
If forced to act immediately, this is more of a “watch for stabilization/bounce near support” than a clean buy-at-market today.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-2.518) and negatively expanding → downside momentum is still building despite the longer-term uptrend.
RSI (6): 32.16 → approaching oversold/weak momentum; can precede a bounce, but not a confirmed reversal signal by itself.
Moving averages: Bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) → larger trend still constructive; current pullback looks like a correction within an uptrend.
Levels: Price 206.87 is below S1 (211.08), increasing risk of a test of S2 (~200.05). Resistance/pivot overhead near 228.95; reclaiming that area would improve the immediate setup.
Probabilistic pattern read: ~50% chance of -4.32% next day and -5.2% next week vs +3.16% next month → near-term pressure, better odds on a 1-month horizon.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Open Interest P/C = 1.26 → more puts outstanding than calls (leans defensive/hedged; mild bearish bias).
Flow: Option Volume P/C = 0.93 → close to balanced, slightly put-leaning.
Volatility: IV 30d 64.33 vs HV 62.69 → options pricing in elevated moves; IV percentile 96% indicates unusually rich premiums (market expects big swings).
Activity: Today’s volume ~110% of 30-day average → attention is elevated, consistent with post-earnings/industry volatility and tactical hedging.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
13
Positive Catalysts
Earnings/Outlook momentum: Recent “beat-and-raise” narrative reinforced by multiple analyst notes pointing to an accelerating WFE upcycle.
Industry tailwinds: AI/data-center buildout and broader semiconductor demand growth remain supportive longer-term.
Corporate execution catalyst: New COO appointment and ops leadership promotions could improve operational velocity and share gains.
R&D/partnership: Collaboration with CEA-Leti on next-gen devices supports technology leadership messaging.
Political/influential buying: Congress trading net-positive (4 buys vs 3 sells, larger median buy size) suggests favorable sentiment from influential participants.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
raise probability of a further drop toward ~$
Options market tone: Elevated put open interest (P/C 1.
Profitability: Net income $1.594B (+33.83% YoY) and EPS 1.26 (+36.96% YoY) → earnings growth outpacing revenue (operating leverage).
Margins: Gross margin 49.6% (+4.71% YoY) → improving mix/pricing/efficiency, supportive of continued EPS strength.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Strongly positive—multiple firms raised price targets sharply after Q2 results and reiterated Buy/Overweight/Outperform.
Notable upgrades/targets: JPMorgan to $300 (Overweight), Cantor to $320 (Overweight), Susquehanna to $325 (Positive), B. Riley to $310 (Buy), BofA to $285 (Buy), Argus to $280 (Buy), several others $275–$300.
Wall Street pros: Beat-and-raise execution, WFE upcycle expectations (CY26 ~$135B), share gains, and sustained demand into 2026–2027.
Wall Street cons: Expectations are now high after large target hikes; the stock can still correct near-term despite strong fundamentals if the tape/semis sentiment stays risk-off.
Wall Street analysts forecast LRCX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LRCX is 192.5 USD with a low forecast of 142 USD and a high forecast of 265 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
22 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LRCX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LRCX is 192.5 USD with a low forecast of 142 USD and a high forecast of 265 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 213.310
Low
142
Averages
192.5
High
265
Current: 213.310
Low
142
Averages
192.5
High
265
Argus
Buy
maintain
$175 -> $280
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Argus
Price Target
$175 -> $280
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Argus raised the firm's price target on Lam Research to $280 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q2 results topped estimates, building on solid growth in 2025. On a secular basis, multiple technology inflections - including gen-AI, cloud data center, vehicle electrification, internet of things, robotics, and AI-enabled edge devices - position Lam for extended growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
JPMorgan
NULL -> Overweight
maintain
$165 -> $300
2026-01-29
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$165 -> $300
2026-01-29
maintain
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Lam Research to $300 from $165 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the earnings report. The firm says Lam's results, guidance and commentary all point to a "highly favorable outlook." Customer expedited requests remain elevated amid a rush to ramp node transitions, and Lam has done well operationally, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for LRCX
