Should I Buy LPX? LPX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

96.970

1 Day change

3.35%

52 Week Range

117.750

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is pushing into near-term resistance (R2 ~97) with RSI elevated, limiting immediate upside-to-downside.
Options flow is tactically bullish (call-heavy volume), but elevated IV and an upcoming earnings event (2026-02-17 pre-market) raise the odds of a sharp move that can go either way.
Street view is broadly positive with targets mostly above the current price, but the latest reported quarter showed a steep profitability drop, which keeps fundamentals as a near-term headwind.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram (-0.232) remains below zero (bearish momentum), but is negatively contracting (downtrend pressure is fading).
RSI: RSI_6 at 70.599 is elevated (near overbought), implying the stock may be extended short term.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation/inflection rather than a clean trend.
Key levels: Price (~95.23) is above R1 (94.051) and approaching R2 (97.013); this is a tougher zone to buy aggressively without a pullback. Pivot support sits around 89.257.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern stats imply a bullish bias (70% chance) with modest expected gains (next day ~+2.77%, next week ~+5.3%, next month ~+4%), but the stock is already near resistance which can cap follow-through.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Open-interest put/call ~1.02 is roughly neutral positioning; volume put/call 0.25 is call-skewed (bullish near-term trading appetite).
Activity: Today’s volume (50) is well below recent averages (5D/10D avgs 147/327), so the bullish volume skew is notable but not backed by heavy participation.
Volatility: 30D IV ~48.95 vs HV ~48.67 (in-line), but IV percentile ~88.45 signals options are priced rich versus much of the past year—consistent with event premium into earnings.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analysts are net-positive with multiple Buy/Outperform/Overweight stances and price targets mostly above the current price (notably $100, $108, $115).
- Business narrative supported by the Street: siding/exterior cladding positioned as a “secular growth” share-gain story with margin expansion potential (per recent initiation).
- Hedge fund activity: reported hedge funds buying, with buying amount up ~129.3% QoQ.
- Options tape today leans bullish (call-heavy volume put/call 0.25).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term technical setup is less attractive for an impatient buy: RSI elevated and price sitting just below resistance (R2 ~97).
- Upcoming earnings (2026-02-17 pre-market) with an EPS estimate shown as negative (Est: -0.03), increasing the chance of a headline-driven gap.
- Latest reported quarter showed sharp profit and margin compression (see financials), which can undermine “buy now” conviction if the market refocuses on fundamentals.
- No supportive near-term news flow in the last week (no fresh catalyst from news).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $663M, down -8.17% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: $9M, down -90.00% YoY (major profitability decline).
EPS: $0.13, down -89.76% YoY.
Gross margin: 19.46%, down -26.81% YoY (margin pressure is the core negative trend).
Next known checkpoint: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (pre-market), with EPS estimate listed at -0.03.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Recent coverage/actions skew constructive—new Outperform initiation (Oppenheimer) and prior Buy reiterations/raises (Truist), plus Overweight initiation (Barclays). One notable offset is BofA cutting its PT to $94 while keeping Buy.
Latest notable update: 2026-02-05 Oppenheimer initiated Outperform with $115 PT, emphasizing siding as a secular growth driver and EBITDA/margin expansion through FY2027.
Wall Street pros: siding share gains, conversion opportunity within exterior cladding, capacity/utilization and product ramp (e.g., ExpertFinish) supporting growth and margins.
Wall Street cons: housing/sluggish demand backdrop and mixed near-term volume commentary; some PT trims indicate sensitivity to cycle/near-term fundamentals.
Influential/political buying/selling: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential-figure transactions were provided in the dataset.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LPX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LPX is 104.69 USD with a low forecast of 94 USD and a high forecast of 117 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 93.830

Low

Averages

104.69

High

117

Current: 93.830

Low

Averages

104.69

High

117

Oppenheimer

Outperform

initiated

$115

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Oppenheimer

Price Target

$115

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

initiated

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer initiated coverage of LP Building Solutions with an Outperform rating and $115 price target. The company's siding segment is a "secular growth story" capable of sustaining high-single-digit EBITDA growth and margin expansion through fiscal 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees outlook being supported by ongoing conversion opportunities within exterior cladding, improving capacity utilization, and the ramp of newer products like ExpertFinis.

Truist

Michael Roxland

Buy

maintain

$102 -> $108

2026-01-06

Reason

Truist

Michael Roxland

Price Target

$102 -> $108

2026-01-06

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist analyst Michael Roxland raised the firm's price target on LP Building Solutions to $108 from $102 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Early 2026 is expected to see modestly challenged packaging volumes due to limited promotions, though some CPGs are successfully driving volume while retaining price gains, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Beverage cans should continue growing in North America and Europe, and containerboard producers are likely to implement price increases successfully thanks to disciplined supply management, the firm says.

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LPX Should I Buy

LPX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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