Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the chart is still in a clear downtrend (bearish MAs + weakening MACD), so odds favor more chop/down before a durable rebound.
The only near-term “bull case” is tactical: price is sitting just above support (~1.675), insiders have been buying, and options positioning is extremely call-heavy—this can fuel sharp bounces, but it’s not a strong risk-adjusted entry without a reversal signal.
Best stance today: Hold/avoid new buying until price reclaims the pivot (~1.843) or momentum improves; otherwise you’re likely buying into continuing downside pressure.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and MACD histogram is negative (-0.0335) and expanding to the downside → downtrend is still strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6)=31.22 (near oversold). This supports the possibility of a short bounce, but by itself is not a buy trigger while MACD and MA structure remain bearish.
Reversal/strength trigger: Pivot=1.843. Bulls want a reclaim above this.
Upside resistances: R1=2.011, R2=2.115.
Short-horizon probability model: Similar-pattern stats imply ~40% chance of -0.72% next day, -2.23% next week, +2.6% next month → near-term bias still soft.
Call OI: 1810 vs Put OI: 12 → Open Interest Put/Call Ratio = 0.01 (very bullish/speculative tilt).
Volume Put/Call Ratio = 0.0 (today’s activity only on calls; 4 calls traded, 0 puts).
Volatility: Implied vol is very high (30D IV 101.77%) vs historical vol (71.24%) → option prices imply large expected swings; rallies/drops can be sharp.
Activity: Today’s volume is elevated vs its 30D average (4.08x), but absolute volume is still small (4 contracts) → sentiment signal is directionally bullish, but not “high-conviction” due to low contract count.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Insiders are buying: buying amount increased ~143% over the last month (often supportive at depressed prices).
Very strong call skew in options (OI and volume) can amplify upside squeezes if price stabilizes near support.
Gross margin improved in 2025/Q3 (78, +5.55% YoY), suggesting some operational resilience.
No negative newsflow in the past week reduces immediate headline risk (though it doesn’t fix the chart).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Analyst stance is cautious (Hold) with a sharply reduced target, reinforcing limited near-term institutional enthusiasm.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $24.169M, +2.95% YoY (modest growth).
Profitability: Net income -$7.569M (down -626.72% YoY) and EPS -0.06 (down -700% YoY) → losses expanded significantly.
Margins: Gross margin 78 (+5.55% YoY), a bright spot, but not currently translating into bottom-line improvement.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Latest analyst update (2025-11-13): Canaccord (Joseph Vafi) kept a Hold rating and cut price target to $2 from $7.
Rationale: Q3 showed efforts to improve book quality/predictability; standards/rate adjustments seen as resilient, but valuation/trajectory doesn’t justify a bullish stance.
Wall Street pros/cons view (from provided data):
Pros: Acknowledged operational steps toward more predictable results.
Cons: Target cut magnitude signals materially reduced confidence in upside; Hold implies “not compelling enough” for aggressive buying right now.
Politicians/influential trading: No recent congress trading data available (no visible political catalyst from the provided dataset).
Wall Street analysts forecast LPRO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LPRO is 3.17 USD with a low forecast of 2 USD and a high forecast of 4 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LPRO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LPRO is 3.17 USD with a low forecast of 2 USD and a high forecast of 4 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 1.680
Low
2
Averages
3.17
High
4
Current: 1.680
Low
2
Averages
3.17
High
4
Canaccord
Joseph Vafi
Hold
downgrade
$7 -> $2
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
Reason
Canaccord
Joseph Vafi
Price Target
$7 -> $2
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi lowered the firm's price target on Open Lending to $2 from $7 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said Q3 results underscored the company's steps to improve the quality of its book and deliver more predictable results. In Canaccord's view, the new lending standards and rate adjustments are proving resilient but they lowered the target to better align with their Hold rating.
Raymond James
Outperform
maintain
2025-08-07
Reason
Raymond James
Price Target
2025-08-07
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Raymond James raised the firm's price target on Open Lending to $2.80 from $2.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company reported solid Q2 results, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a favorable risk/reward at current share levels.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for LPRO
