Should I Buy LPLA? LPLA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy LPL Financial Holdings Inc (LPLA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

385.140

1 Day change

3.44%

52 Week Range

403.570

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Despite today’s -3.10% drop, the broader technical trend is still bullish (rising MAs + expanding positive MACD), and the dip is occurring near a key pivot support area (~372.78).
Options positioning/flow is strongly bullish (very low put/call on volume + put/call OI below 1), suggesting traders are leaning upside.
Fundamentals/news are supportive (Q4’25 strong revenue growth, dividend continuity, solid organic NNA, Commonwealth integration retention reiterated).
Net: Good buy right now for an impatient buyer because trend + sentiment + catalysts favor continuation higher, with upside levels around 393–406 as the next technical targets.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating a strong uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +2.009 and expanding → positive momentum remains intact even after today’s pullback.
RSI (6): 74.664 → momentum is hot/extended (near overbought conditions), which can allow short-term chop, but does not negate the primary uptrend.
Key levels:
- Pivot (near-term balance): 372.781 (price 375.63 is slightly above)
- Support: S1 352.516, S2 339.996
- Resistance/targets: R1 393.046, R2 405.566
Pattern-based forward bias (provided): 50% chance of approximately +0.99% next day, +5.98% next week, +13.41% next month (skews positive).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (OI): Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.56 → more calls than puts outstanding (bullish positioning).
Sentiment (Volume): Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.01 (puts volume 17 vs calls 2967) → extremely call-dominant flow (strong bullish speculation/positioning).
Activity: Today’s option volume 2984 is ~569x the 30-day average (very elevated attention/flow).
Volatility: 30D IV 34.22 vs HV 30.85 (IV slightly rich); IV percentile 51 / IV rank 7.32 → IV not stretched vs its own range, leaving room for directional continuation without “peak IV” conditions.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings/operations: Q4 results beat expectations (multiple firms cite EPS/revenue outperformance and cost control).
- Growth catalyst: $23B organic net new asset growth in Q4 2025; company reiterated ~90% retention target tied to Commonwealth integration.
- Capital return: Quarterly dividend declared ($0.30/share) and commentary suggests potential for faster capital return.
- Wall Street support: Multiple price target raises post-earnings (e.g., BofA to $543, Citizens to $500, JPM to $439) reinforce bullish institutional narrative.
- Positioning: Hedge funds noted as net buyers (buying amount up 200.11% QoQ).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insider activity: Insiders are net sellers (selling amount up 286.60% over the last month), which can cap near-term upside.
- Short-term technical stretch: RSI is elevated (~74.7), increasing odds of a pause/pullback even within an uptrend.
- Market tape: Broader market is risk-off today (S&P 500 -1.28%), which can pressure brokers/financials short term.
- Execution watch-items (from analysts): Monitoring client cash build and pace of organic NNA improvement versus peers (raised as a watch factor by TD Cowen).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
- Revenue: $4.885B, +40.47% YoY (strong top-line acceleration)
- Net income: $300.7M, +11.07% YoY (profit growth positive but lagging revenue growth)
- EPS: $3.74, +4.18% YoY (modest EPS growth; suggests costs/other factors absorbed part of revenue surge)
Overall: Clear growth trend on revenue with continued profitability expansion, supportive for trend continuation if retention/NNA execution holds.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend: Predominantly positive bias with multiple post-earnings target increases (Citizens, BofA, JPM) and several modest trims that still maintained bullish stances (Wolfe, Barclays, Morgan Stanley).
Pros (Wall Street view): Strong Q4 execution, cost control, constructive market backdrop for wealth brokers, attractive integration/retention outlook for Commonwealth, continued capital return.
Cons (Wall Street view): Some caution on client cash levels and the pace/quality of organic NNA improvement; one more neutral stance remains (TD Cowen Hold, PT $378 close to current price).
Net takeaway: Street is Overweight/Outperform leaning, with upside targets often well above the current ~$376 level, implying continued confidence in the trajectory.

14 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LPLA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LPLA is 430.92 USD with a low forecast of 380 USD and a high forecast of 486 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

11 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 372.340

Low

380

Averages

430.92

High

486

Current: 372.340

Low

380

Averages

430.92

High

486

Citizens

Outperform

maintain

$475 -> $500

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

Reason

Citizens

Price Target

$475 -> $500

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Citizens raised the firm's price target on LPL Financial to $500 from $475 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. LPL substantially outperformed in Q4, with adjusted EPS well ahead of consensus and revenue exceeding the firm's model by over 1%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company reiterated expectations that it will achieve previously disclosed retention targets on Commonwealth, Citizens says, adding that LPL remains an attractive opportunity.

BofA

Craig Siegenthaler

Buy

maintain

$527 -> $543

2026-02-01

Reason

BofA

Craig Siegenthaler

Price Target

$527 -> $543

2026-02-01

maintain

Buy

Reason

BofA analyst Craig Siegenthaler raised the firm's price target on LPL Financial to $543 from $527 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the earnings report.

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LPLA Should I Buy

LPLA Should I Buy

Should You Buy LPL Financial Holdings Inc (LPLA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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